09 January 2009:Fixed Income Markets Research

Market overview
► There was a lacklustre performance from US equity markets ahead of today’s US December jobs report, with the S&P registering a small gain and the Dow a small loss. Equities were spurred by news that Citigroup agreed to support legislation that allows bankruptcy courts to reduce mortgage rates for at-risk borrowers. Stocks managed to shake off disappointing earnings from Wal-Mart and Gap and a warning by President-elect Obama that the US recession will deepen without government spending. Overall there was a slight improvement in risk appetite according to our gauge and a reduction in equity volatility.
► The economic news yesterday remained grim, especially in the Eurozone where the EU Commission sentiment index dropped to a record low, Q3 GDP data confirmed that the economy slid into recession whilst German factory orders plummeted in November. The data echoes the very weak PMI data released recently and overall confirms the sharp declines in consumer, business and manufacturing sentiment over recent months. The drop in sentiment also points to a further contraction in GDP. The EUR appears to have become immune to such bad news and managed to shake off the data but perhaps much of this has more to do with uncertainty ahead of next week’s ECB decision as well as today’s US jobs report.