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Real GDP (production side, factor price) grew by 8.2% in the Oct-Dec quarter (Q3 of FY10/11); we had expected 8%. The outturn was led by a rebound in agriculture output (+8.9%), without which growth would have been much lower; non-farm real GDP growth was 8%, compared to 9.5% in the previous quarter. Indicators of industrial activity slowed somewhat, with both mining (+6%yoy) and manufacturing (+5.6%yoy) output growth being lower than in the previous two quarters. There were signs of slowdown also in construction (+8%yoy) and trade (+9.4%yoy), although the rate of expansion remained fairly robust. Encouragingly, power production rebounded (+6.4%yoy) and financial sector activities picked up (+11.2%yoy). On the expenditure side (market prices), the data suggested a stronger growth outturn (+9.7%), but data from this part of the national accounts has been subject to numerous revisions and methodological modification in the recent past and is not being followed closely. Within the components of expenditure, real private consumption growth (+5.4%yoy) remained robust while investment growth (+1.9%yoy) continued to be anemic.
Today's data release does not change our view of the economy; we are maintaining our forecast that growth in FY10/11 would be 8.5%, although there is some downside risk to the forecast as real spending is being reduced by high inflation.