Conflicting messages from the UK
authorities have raised the spectre
of full-scale nationalisation
􀀗 In light of the current background,
bank share prices can only be
regarded as a call option on some
very distant recovery, in our view
􀀗 However, the banks’ main problem,
rising impairments, is cyclical rather
than structural. And the evidence
from the re-pricing of the mortgage
market is that the industry should be
able to maintain core revenues
At this time it is customary to speculate on the outlook
for the forthcoming year, but in the case of the UK
banks the real question is whether some of the stocks
will still be around in 12 months’ time.
Whereas 2008 was the year when the UK banking system
was part-nationalised as an indirect result of injudicious
lending decisions, 2009 could be the year when some
banks could be fully nationalised for not lending enough.
Concern over the Bank of England’s credit conditions
survey (page 11) lead to immediate press speculation that
full nationalisation was the only way to restore the flow of
credit. This was clearly shooting from the hip: RBS only
received its nationalisation cash in December, while
Lloyds and HBOS will be waiting until mid-January.
In the event, the Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whilst not
ruling out a second recapitalisation, commented (BBC
television interview, 4 January): "I don't think that's the
first thing that anybody would think about at the moment".
Investors will remain sceptical but it could be that Mr
Brown’s comments stem from recognition that the
“lending problem” is not about inadequate capital but the
absence of funding.
According to the Bank of England, customer deposits are
only sufficient to fund 60% of UK Banks’ customer
lending, leaving GBP740bn financed from Wholesale
sources. Sustaining this level of funding whilst finding
another GBP50-100bn pa to support just 5% lending
growth puts the GBP37bn that the HM Treasury has
injected into the sector into context.
We are encouraged that measures to improve funding now
appear under active consideration (Financial Times, 5
January). Government guarantees on mortgage-backed
securities (the recommendation of the Crosby report), and
on SME lending (as per the Conservatives’ National Loan
Guarantee scheme) would be steps in the right direction, in
our view.

目录

Economic environment 3
Housing market 4
Mortgage volumes 6
Buy-to-let (BTL) and
mortgage equity withdrawal
(MEW) 7
Unsecured lending 8
Corporate lending 9
Bank of England lending
conditions survey 10
Savings 11
Unemployment and personal
bankruptcies 12
Mortgage credit quality 13
Mortgage credit quality 14
Personal unsecured credit
quality 15
Corporate credit quality 16
Product pricing 18

Portfolio spreads 19
Investment banking 21
Hong Kong SAR industry
trends 23
United States – Industry
trends 25