Better than expected asset quality trends
and profitability generation trigger
sizeable earnings estimate upgrades
􀀗 We raise our sector EPS forecasts by
23% in 2010e and 28% in 2011e, on a
combination of lower LLPs and higher
NII; we raise our target prices
accordingly; our earnings estimates
stand 6%-7% above consensus
􀀗 Remain OW(V) on NBG, a key conviction
call, N(V) on Eurobank and Alpha and
UW(V) on Marfin; upgrade Bank of
Cyprus to OW(V) and Piraeus to N(V)
We revisited our earnings estimates post Q2 2009 results to
account for a) stronger than anticipated operating profit growth,
b) buoyant organic capital generation and c) pretty much stable
quarterly NPLs flow.
Prompted by the market’s persistent rhetoric over the level of
“normalised” loan loss provisions (LLPs), we have stress-tested
our 2010e EPS and capital estimates against different levels of
LLPs. Our analysis shows that every 10% change in LLPs vs
our base case forecast leads to a 10% impact to sector EPS.
We raise our sector EPS forecasts by 13% for 2009e, 23% for
2010e and 28% for 2011e, on a combination of lower LLPs (as
lower-for-longer base rates could suppress NPLs flow below
expectations), higher NII (asset repricing along with improving
deposit spreads) and widening operating “jaws”. All in, we now
project sector net profit to drop 29% y-o-y in 2009e, only to
recover by 14% in 2010e and by 41% in 2011e. We raise
targets across all banks in our coverage universe. NBG remains
our sector’s strongest conviction call.
Catalyst
The market is still reluctant to screen banks on P/E terms. A
potential switch to P/E-based valuation criteria would, ceteris
paribus, lead to significant upgrades to our target prices.