China Internet / Media
Eight Good Things about a
Bear Market…
The Brighter Side of the Bear Market…In our view,
2009 is likely to be a year fraught with challenges as well
as opportunities. Note that: 1) historically, a big down
year for the stock market has often been followed by up
years. 2) A stock market rebound often precedes
economic recovery by ~six months. 3) The Internet
sector is the fastest-growing consumer sector in China,
with Chinese online population likely up 30% YoY in
2009. 4) Chinese Internet and media listcos likely enjoy
the “fattest” margins (30-40% for operating margin) of all
Chinese companies. 5) In an era when cash is king,
most Chinese Internet and media listcos are debt free,
with some having cash accounting for the bulk of their
market value (e.g., SinoMedia, AirMedia, and China
Digital TV) and most buying back their own shares. 6)
Chinese Internet leaders (e.g., Alibaba, Ctrip) have
better survival skills than most peers in a bear market,
as they have thrived on sector-wide “recessions” before.
7) Internet companies tend to be anti-cyclical, as they
offer cheaper goods/entertainment and more “sticky”
services than their offline rivals. 8) Chinese Internet
companies are trading at all-time lows, with stock prices
implying unreasonably pessimistic outlook.
Buy Philip Fisher Stock at Ben Graham Price…As
stated above, we believe China’s Internet sector offers
some of the best investment opportunities in China. We
prefer: 1) Tencent, due to its status as the “largest online
park in China” and its robust growth outlook (only ~8% of
its users are paying); 2) Ctrip, thanks to its dominance
(~60% of online travel service market share) and sizable
market share gain (its air ticketing market share may rise
4-5 times in next few years); and 3) online game leaders
(Perfect World and NetEase), given their countercyclical
nature and cheaper valuation (less than 10x
forecast earnings). We remain cautious about Baidu in
the near term – in 1Q09, we expect it to suffer from the
first full-quarter impact from the cleanup of its
questionable listings (e.g., unlicensed medical sites) and
the “unhealthy content” per government mandates.