Long-awaited proposed tax cuts have
improved performance of Russian oil & gas
stocks – however, we do not share the
market’s optimism about additional material
cuts in the near future
􀀗 After an impressive run in Rosneft’s shares,
we downgrade from Overweight to Neutral,
target price USD13 from USD12
􀀗 We stay bullish on Gazprom (Overweight,
target price USD81/ADR from USD80) and
Lukoil (Overweight, USD125 from USD120),
and retain a Neutral on Novatek
(USD100/ADR from USD90)
Promised tax cut proposals + attractive
valuations strengthen our preference for
Gazprom and Lukoil
Although do not think additional substantial tax cuts are
feasible in the near future, we continue to see value in
Gazprom and Lukoil, supported by their strong
fundamentals. We have an Overweight rating on both.
We downgrade Rosneft to a Neutral rating (from Overweight)
after 42% share price appreciation over the past three months.
Approval of new tax cuts for offshore fields (possibly in
August) and/or publication of a long-term strategy (scheduled
for end-2008) would be future catalysts.
Novatek remains the best operational/financial performer
within the Russian oil & gas universe, but its valuation
largely reflects this, we believe.
We adjust our target prices to reflect the new tax proposals,
lower risk free rate, and higher capex and inflation estimates.