We believe the negative outlook for the commercial rental market is already priced into
Hong Kong property investor stocks. This should provide downside support, though the
sector is still in the early stages of a consolidation that may last two to three years.
We initiate coverage of Hongkong Land, Hysan Development and Great Eagle, which are
trading at historical trough NAV discount levels of 50%, 60% and 69%, respectively. In view
of this and in the absence of any near-term catalysts for the sector, our calls are largely
valuation based.
We expect the discount on Great Eagle to narrow given its healthier capital structure, while
Hongkong Land and Hysan should trade range-bound at current levels.
Overall, among the H-REIT and property investor stocks under our coverage, our top pick is
Link REIT given its defensive, non-discretionary retail focus.

目录

Sector performance 10
Sector recommendation 16
Grade A Office outlook 18
Retail outlook 32
Lodging outlook 37
Hongkong Land 41
Hysan Development 49
Great Eagle Holdings 56
Hong Kong REITs 64
Champion REIT 68
The Link REIT 72
Disclosure appendix 76
Disclaimer 80