The housing shortage in Abu Dhabi is
leading people to move to Dubai and
commute
􀀗 Sorouh has been granted another 33m
sq m of land at Sheih Al Sedira; Aldar
has released its plans for Motor World,
Al Raha Beach and Yas Island phase II
􀀗 We retain our Overweight (V) ratings on
Aldar, Sorouh and Emaar, raise our
target price for Aldar to AED25.3 and for
Sorouh to AED17.6, and reduce our
target price for Emaar to AED21
Aggressive rate cuts and sustained oil-price growth have
fuelled liquidity and with it, rapid asset inflation. Over the
past six months, the UAE property market has seen
acceleration in sales and rental prices grow across the board.
We believe prices in the UAE are not only reasonable but
still affordable. Based on current plot prices of AED7,000
per sq m, we estimate a residential-property sales price of
AED28,000 per sq m by year end, suggesting price growth is
set to slow from the rapid rates since the start of the year.
The housing shortage in Abu Dhabi had raised concerns, but
so far, population growth shows no signs of slowing. Lack of
housing has led people to move to Dubai and commute to
Abu Dhabi, much as many Sharjah and Ajman residents
commute to work in Dubai.
We are revising our estimates and raising our target price for
Aldar to AED25.3 from AED18.9 to reflect (1) rising prices
and costs, (2) the Motor World project, (3) Raha Beach
phase II and (4) Yas Island plot sales, all of which have
more than offset the effects of delivery delays. For Sorouh,
we are lifting our estimates and raising our target price to
AED17.6 from AED14.4 to reflect its additional 33m sq m
land grant at Sheih Al Sedira (SAS). For Emaar, we are
reducing our estimates and target price to AED21 from
AED23 to reflect (1) the final Dubai Mall GLA, which is
lower than the initial figure provided by the company (2)
lower valuation for Emaar MGF based on current market
conditions in India.