We refresh our view on all our stocks
post Sept quarter results
􀀗 We cut Dabur from OW to N(V),
Pantaloon OW(V) to N(V) and upgrade
Vishal from UW(V) to N(V)
Post our results we have published notes on all stocks under
our coverage; we attach the same in the note below.
For FMCG companies, we have not noticed any significant
change in sales momentum from the previous quarter with
volume growth as well as overall sales growth clocking c20%.
Margins remain under pressure, but we believe that with
commodity prices easing, we should see margin expansion in
the March quarter if not in the December quarter. We expect
sales to slow next year as price increases will be modest and
volumes could be marginally impacted. We are Overweight on
Marico and HUL and Neutral on Dabur and ITC.
Retail stocks have corrected across the board, and we believe
that most of the correction is done. However, we do not see
significant upside in stock prices due to increased store
density leading to lower sales per sq ft and inventory pile up.
Moreover, some retailers have new initiatives and formats
which we expect to take a year or more to break even,
pulling down overall profitability. High leverage is also an
issue and so is slowing mall development activity and
consequent delays in store rollout. We are Overweight on
Titan and Gitanjali, Neutral on Vishal and Pantaloon and
Underweight on Shoppers Stop.

目录

ITC 3
HUL 8
Dabur 13
Marico 18
Titan 23
Gitanjali 28
Shoppers Stop 33
Pantaloon 38
Vishal Retail 43
HT Media 48
Disclosure appendix 53
Disclaimer 56