The memory capex binge appears to be
over. SEAJ data through May shows a
decline in orders for wafer processing
equipment and a gradual uptrend in
orders for test and inspection
equipment
􀀗 Having seen margins collapse, NAND
flash and DRAM makers are likely to
keep a close eye on capacity expansion
until those margins are rebuilt
􀀗 Equipment orders appear to have hit
bottom in the June quarter, but year-onyear
comparisons are likely to remain
difficult through March 2008
􀀗 On a six-month view, the bad news
appears to be discounted
􀀗 Seasonal demand, more memory per
box and per handheld device, and
higher DRAM and NAND flash prices
should lift share prices in the second
half of the year
􀀗 We have Overweight (V) ratings on
Tokyo Electron, ULVAC, Hitachi High-
Tech, Canon and Advantest; Neutral (V)
ratings on Dainippon Screen and
Yokogawa Electric; and an Underweight
(V) rating on Nikon

目录

Summary 3
Demand slowing down 3
Competitive dynamics 3
Recommendations 4
Industry Outlook 7
The binge is over 7
Other sources of growth 7
Tokyo Electron example 7
Data through May 10
SEAJ data for May 10
Tokyo Electron (8035) 15
Share price & valuation 15
Risks & catalysts 15
Dainippon Screen (7735) 17
Share price & valuation 17
Risks & catalysts 17
Hitachi High-Tech (8036) 19
Share price & valuation 19
Risks & catalysts 19
ULVAC (6728) 21
Share price & valuation 21
Risks & catalysts 21

Canon (7751) 23
Share price & valuation 23
Risks & catalysts 23
Nikon (7731) 25
Share price & valuation 25
Risks & catalysts 25
Advantest (6857) 27
Share price & valuation 27
Risks & catalysts 27
Yokogawa Electric (6841) 29
Share price & valuation 29
Risks & catalysts 29
Disclosure appendix 31
Disclaimer 33