Coal inventory day back down at 19 days: Because of significant
production cutbacks at the coal mine and the cold weather over the past 1-2
months, domestic spot coal prices have remained relatively firm over the
past month. Against this, several data points as highlighted below support
our view that spot coal prices are likely to remain firm for the next few
weeks, leading to relatively negative sentiment towards the listed IPPs as
the market may have priced in much larger coal price decline: (1) Latest
spot coal prices for the week showing flat coal prices (again) versus last
week, (2) Coal inventory data show steady decline in coal inventory days
back down to 19 days on 16 January, down from 27+ days during 4-30
November 2008, and (C) Specifically on 16-Jan-09, coal supply to power
plants came in at 1.64 million tons, compared to daily usage of 1.91 million
tons, and hence a gap of 0.27 million tons.

 

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-2-5 11:13:00编辑过]