TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................... 7  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 9  
A Changing China in a Changing World .............................................................................. 10
Brazil’s Evolving Linkages with China ................................................................................ 12
Policy Implications for Brazil ............................................................................................... 14  INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 19  
In Context: Brazil’s Growing Connections with China ........................................................ 19
The Outlook: Relevance of a Changing China for Brazil ..................................................... 20
This Report: Objective, Scope and Structure ........................................................................ 21  
PART 1.  A CHANGING CHINA IN A CHANGING WORLD ................................................ 23  
I. China’s Journey of Structural Transformation ................................................................... 23
A. The Past Three Decades: China’s Journey of Economic Reform ........................... 23
B. The Next Two Decades: A New Phase in China’s Development ........................... 25
II. China in the World: Growing Integration and Mutual Dependence ................................. 31
A. China’s Position in the World ................................................................................. 31
B. Relations between China and the World ................................................................. 34  
PART 2.  BRAZIL’S EVOLVING LINKAGES WITH CHINA................................................. 39  
I. Looking Back: Facets and Characteristics over the Last Decade ...................................... 39
A. Facets of the Brazil-China Relationship: Trade, Investment and Indirect Effects .. 40
B. Characteristics of the Relationship: Complementarity and Similarity .................... 47
II. Looking Ahead: Impact of a Changing China on Brazil .................................................. 61
A. Changes in China: A More Detailed Analysis ........................................................ 61
B. Implications for Brazil: Rising Complementarity, Changing Similarity ................. 65  
PART 3.  POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR BRAZIL .................................................................. 69  
I. Growth Expectations and Structural Reform ..................................................................... 69
A. Recent Developments: Muted Growth Expectations .............................................. 70
B. Structural Reform: The Unfinished Agenda ............................................................ 72
II. Scope for Enhancing Global Integration .......................................................................... 75
A. Has Trade with China Made Brazil Too Outward Oriented? .................................. 75
B. Has Brazil’s Trade Structure Become Too Concentrated? ...................................... 82
C. Has Brazil Become Too Specialized in Commodities? ........................................... 87
III. Leveraging External Connections with China ................................................................. 93
A. Tackling Home-Grown Supply-Side Constraints .................................................... 93
B. Enhancing the External Environment for Trade and Investment ............................ 98  REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 107