德意志银行:希腊与塞浦路斯银行业研究报告2009年1月

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收藏 2009-02-04

20 January 2009 Greek and Cypriot Banks Classical Greek credit tragedy? Rec &amp; TP changes Carlos Berastain Gonzalez Research Analyst (34) 913355971 <a href="mailto:carlos.berastain@db.com">carlos.berastain@db.com</a> Thibault Nardin Research Analyst (44) 20 754 11521 <a href="mailto:thibault.nardin@db.com">thibault.nardin@db.com</a> Greek and Cypriot banks, a mixed bag...but overall we are negative This report changes ratings, price targets and estimates for the banks in our coverage universe, mainly as a result of our more cautious view on Greece, Cyprus and Emerging Europe (see page 5 for a summary). We rate Alpha (E8.1) and Marfin (E2.4) as Buy; Piraeus (E4.4), Agricultural (E0.8) and Bank of Cyprus (E2.4) as Sell; and EFG Eurobank (E5.3) and NBG (E13.8) as Hold. Deutsche Bank AG/London All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at <a href="http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch">http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch</a> or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Forecast change Top picks Marfin Popular Bank (MRBr.AT),EUR1.75 Buy Alpha Bank SA (ACBr.AT),EUR5.50 Buy Companies featured National Bank of Greece (NBGr.AT),EUR11.50 Hold 2007A 2008E 2009E EPS Adjusted (EUR)3.08 3.02 1.86 P/E Adjusted (x) 15.2 3.8 6.2 EFG EuroBank (EFGr.AT),EUR4.80 Hold 2007A 2008E 2009E EPS Adjusted (EUR)1.65 1.51 0.64 P/E Adjusted (x) 14.6 3.2 7.5 Alpha Bank SA (ACBr.AT),EUR5.50 Buy Alpha Bank SA (ACBr.AT),EUR5.50 Buy 2007A 2008E 2009E EPS Adjusted (EUR)1.80 1.56 1.04 P/E Adjusted (x) 13.8 3.5 5.3 Piraeus Bank (BOPr.AT),EUR5.48 Sell 2007A 2008E 2009E EPS Adjusted (EUR)1.72 1.60 0.23 P/E Adjusted (x) 15.5 3.4 23.9 Agricultural Bank of Greece (AGBr.AT),EUR1.28Sell 2007A 2008E 2009E EPS Adjusted (EUR)0.18 0.08 -0.08 P/E Adjusted (x) 20.7 15.3 -15.6 Bank of Cyprus Group (BOCr.AT),EUR2.39 Sell 2007A 2008E 2009E EPS Adjusted (EUR)0.87 0.85 0.45 P/E Adjusted (x) 14.4 2.8 5.3 Marfin Popular Bank (MRBr.AT),EUR1.75 Buy Marfin Popular Bank (MRBr.AT),EUR1.75 Buy 2007A 2008E 2009E EPS Adjusted (EUR)0.44 0.49 0.30 P/E Adjusted (x) 20.9 3.6 5.9 Global Markets Research Company The end of the growth story: Credit quality to jeopardize earnings generation Our main ST/MT concerns relate to Emerging Europe, where some banks are heavily exposed, and where capital outflows, banking system over-leverage and FX lending could have dramatic consequences for banks. Although in Greece, government intervention has provided banks with sufficient capital and liquidity, neither Cyprus nor Greece, with its structurally weak economy, will likely be immune to the global economic slowdown. In this new environment we expect banks’ profitability and capital to be under pressure, driven by a deceleration in banking activity, but more importantly a severe deterioration of credit quality. This should ultimately lead to much higher provisioning and lower earnings generation, something we believe consensus is underestimating. Domestic consolidation: Necessary consequence of a tougher environment? We believe that the upcoming difficulties Greek banks will face and the need to tackle decreasing profitability could very likely trigger domestic consolidation. Preferred and least preferred stocks in our universe Our top picks are Alpha Bank (Buy) and Marfin (Buy) given their relatively high earnings power, lower exposure to Emerging Europe, solid capital bases, undemanding valuations and lower-than-peers’ percentage downside to consensus earnings. Our least preferred stocks besides BOC (Sell) are Piraeus (Sell) and Agricultural (Sell). We expect both banks to report losses in 2009-10, and they both offer the largest potential downside to consensus. It is worth highlighting Piraeus’ high exposure to CEE coupled with a relatively poor provisioning level. Neither bank trades at a sufficient valuation discount to the sector. Last, we view BOC’s Sell rating as a relative call vs. Marfin, the other Cypriot bank – the deciding factor being BOC’s weaker core capital ratios (6% 08E) and the high chances of its raising capital. EFG (Hold)/NBG (Hold): Concerns prevent us from rating them differently Although solid banks, their higher-than-peers exposures to Emerging Europe (in particular, to some of the riskier countries) and to consumer credit (mainly EFG) is worrisome – their valuations are not attractive enough to overcome these concerns. We view NBG’s recent out-performance and the unanimous positive market view on the stock as an opportunity to switch out into Marfin or Alpha. Valuation and risks We set our new TPs using P/TE multiple model. The main risks relate to economic developments in Greece, Cyprus and Emerging Europe and the impact of these developments on activity and credit quality (full details on pages 8 and 11-12).Table of Contents Executive summary ........................................................................... 4 Valuation, financials and risks.......................................................... 5 Credit quality and cost of risk ........................................................ 13 Greece .............................................................................................. 22 Cyprus............................................................................................... 31 European emerging markets .......................................................... 39 Capital and liquidity ........................................................................ 50 Domestic consolidation: How necessary and likely is it? ............ 56 Appendix A – FY earnings forecasts .............................................. 59 Appendix B – Q4 results preview................................................... 69 Company pages - RtN ..................................................................... 77