中国更多的资金有了新的流向———流出。当美国房产经纪人组织一场房屋拍卖之旅活动时，由于急于将手中人民币转化为其他资产的中国申请人过多，组织者不得不放弃了近400人。就在西方投资者将手中所持的效益良好的公司证券甩卖一空时，在上海，现金充裕的中国公司纷纷购买处境艰难的美国公司所发行的高收益证券。

　　在全世界范围，中国公司只将从出口中赚取的数十亿美元的很小部分寄回国内，却将它们存在海外银行和证券代理公司的账户上。在香港，越来越多的富有内地人正出现在珠宝商店里寻购大钻石。总而言之，这些趋势代表着一种结构性转变。随着中国公民开始将更多资金放到国外，外国投资者在抽撤资金，新投资速度也日益趋缓。

　　去年第四季度的外流资金总额高达2400亿美元，但这是用最宽泛的定义计算出来的，囊括了资本外逃和中国公司减缓寄回海外利润等在内的所有资金。至今没有确切数据能解释这些资金流出中国的动机。更为严重的是，中国个人和公司将更多资金放到海外将影响过去五年来国际金融持续关注的议题之一———中国在美国贸易和预算赤字中的关键角色。

　　如今，经济学家面临的挑战是确认资金为何流出中国，还有这种趋势将持续多久。由于去年最后几个月的进口萎缩速度高于出口，大量贸易顺差的现金依然在流入中国。然而，流入的那些资金已几乎被最近几个月从中国大陆流出的私人现金和投资减缓所抵消。

　　由于香港商店不像内地那样征收奢侈品消费税，而且享有不卖假货的名声，香港珠宝店是内地消费趋势的晴雨表。香港一家商店的经理说，他看到从去年12月起大量内地人拥入香港，主要购买钻石和各类珠宝。今年春节期间内地人的购买量比一年前高出50%。

　　资金流出中国的另外一个原因，无论是个人还是公司中间，可能只是基于一种感觉———更实惠的打折商品随处可见。一家房产网站正举办一次至少由40人组成的美国之旅，结果发现需求量超过供应量。“旅游团成员明显对多样化投资感兴趣，由于美国房产价格急剧下降，美国当然成了一个极具吸引力的地方。”该活动组织者说。

　　流入中国的资金之所以减少的另外一个原因可能是中国政府去年7月决定暂停人民币对美元升值。这使希望将钱投入到中国赚取汇率收益的人的兴趣降低。

　　渣打银行上海办事处的经济学家史蒂芬格林（Stephen Green）指出，今年冬天流入中国的资金之所以减缓的另一个重要原因是，手头缺钱的西方零售商在对中国商品支付时等待的时间更长了。如果确实如此，更多的美元将很快再次开始流入中国。

建议同学们读原文，好多都没译出

In Shift, Chinese Move More Money Overseas
 

NYtimes 02-03-2009

More money is moving in a new direction in China — out.

Some Chinese are so eager to turn their yuan into other assets that when an online real estate brokerage organized a tour of foreclosure auctions in the United States, it received so many applications that it had to turn away nearly 400 people.

In Shanghai, cash-rich Chinese companies are buying high-yield bonds issued by distressed American companies at a time when many Western investors are steering clear of bonds even from solid companies.

All over the world, Chinese companies are sending home fewer of the billions of dollars they earn from exports, parking them in overseas bank and brokerage accounts instead.

And in Hong Kong, wealthy mainlanders are turning up at jewelry stores in growing numbers seeking diamonds, big ones.

“They’re looking for five-carat diamond rings and six-carat diamond earrings — three carats for each ear,” said Yollanda Lam, the marketing manager for the King Fook jewelry store chain here.

Together, these trends represent a potentially tectonic shift. As Chinese citizens are starting to send more money out of the country, foreign investors are pulling money out too, and slowing the pace of new investment.

“There is a recognition for sure that China is slowing down, so why keep your money there?” said Henry Lee, a Hong Kong fund manager.

Nobody knows how long this trend will last. If China’s series of economic stimulus measures are successful, then the Chinese economy could rebound later this year and start drawing back money on the same scale that it did over the last decade.

Total outflows in the fourth quarter were as much as $240 billion, but this is using the broadest possible definition and includes everything from capital flight to a slowdown in repatriation of overseas profits by Chinese companies. There is no good data assessing the motives of those moving money out of China.

Most troubling for China would be if a sizable portion of these disparate streams represented capital flight — people taking their money out because they worry about the stability of the country.

Though there are myriad reasons to move capital around, there is also cause for concern: Chinese authorities announced Monday that 20 million migrant workers had lost their jobs. If they do not find new work, these workers could form a volatile class of unemployed.

Even more crucial, Chinese individuals and companies placing more of their money outside China could affect one of the constants of international finance over the last five years: China’s central role in bankrolling American trade and budget deficits.

To prevent China’s currency, the yuan, from rising, the government has been buying up the dollars pouring into the country from trade and foreign investment, accumulating more foreign exchange reserves than Japan, Saudi Arabia and Russia put together. It has paid for the dollars by printing more yuan, and has invested at least two-thirds of the dollars in American securities, particularly Treasury securities.

If considerably fewer dollars come in, China will not have the yuan to continue buying vast amounts of Treasuries, assuming it wants to keep buying them.

Over the weekend, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, said, “Whether China will continue to buy, and how much to buy, should be in accordance with China’s needs, and depend on the safety and protection of value of foreign exchange.” The statement, reported by the semi-official China News Service, was taken by some analysts as official ambivalence.

Right now, the challenge for economists is figuring out why money is leaving China — and how long the trend will last. Torrents of cash are still pouring in from trade surpluses, as imports shrank faster than exports in the final months of last year. But that inflow has been nearly balanced in recent months by an outflow of private cash from the mainland and a slowing of investment.

The quarterly pace of accumulation in China’s foreign exchange reserves plunged 74 percent over the course of last year. In the fourth quarter, it reached $40.45 billion, the lowest point since the spring of 2004.

Most economists say that actual capital flight seems the exception rather than the rule, and anecdotal evidence appears to bear that out.

Jewelry stores in Hong Kong are a barometer of trends on the mainland, because Hong Kong stores do not charge the luxury consumption taxes imposed on the mainland and have a reputation for not selling counterfeits. Daniel Chun, the manager of Gaily Jewelry here, said he had seen an influx since December, with mainland Chinese mainly buying diamonds, either set in jewelry or as loose stones.

Sales to mainlanders were 50 percent higher at Chinese New Year this year compared to a year ago, he said, but cautioned that it was impossible to determine how much of the increase represented worries about China’s future.

Yet the Hong Kong government said on Monday that retail sales of jewelry, clocks and watches fell 9.8 percent in December. While this may reflect plunging demand from local residents as Hong Kong’s economy slowed suddenly, it also indicates that demand from visitors, a big part of the market, could not have increased very quickly.

Hong Kong residents have been snapping up gold bars at a brisk pace in another sign of anxiety. Few mainlanders have been willing to take the risk of flouting the mainland’s stringent gold import regulations, said Lin Tat Yin, a manager at Chow Tai Fook, a jewelry store chain.

Another motive for money coming out of China may be simply a perception, among individuals and companies, that better bargains are available elsewhere.

Soufun.com, an online real estate brokerage, is offering a tour for at least 40 people to San Francisco, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and New York City, starting on Feb. 24, and found that demand outstripped the spaces available. “The people in the group are obviously interested in diversifying their investments, and the United States certainly is a very attractive location since real estate prices there have dropped drastically,” said Zhao Xingyu, a manager organizing the tour.

Chinese real estate industry executives say that there was considerable speculation here in recent years by overseas investors, especially overseas Chinese. Those purchases contributed to a bubble that peaked last spring and has gradually deflated since, removing the incentive for further real estate investments here.

“Certainly a lot of the Hong Kong money seems to be coming back,” said Brad W. Setser, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Beijing’s slowing accumulations of Treasuries may be partly offset by Hong Kong’s increased purchases of Treasuries, he said.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the American dollar, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority typically buys more Treasuries to offset strong inflows of money.

Another reason less money could be flowing into China is the government’s decision to halt the rise of the yuan against the dollar last July, and even to allow a short-lived decline against the dollar in late November. This removed the incentive for investors to put money into China in pursuit of currency gains.

Stephen Green, an economist in the Shanghai offices of Standard Chartered, said in a research note that yet another important contributor to slowing flows of money into China this winter may be that hard-up retailers in the West have been waiting longer to pay for Chinese goods. If that is the case, more dollars may start entering China again soon.

Two agencies have primary responsibility for regulating the movement of money in and out of China — the People’s Bank of China, which is the central bank, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which is part of the central bank but enjoys considerable independence. Officials from both agencies have said conspicuously little about capital flight in recent weeks.

The central bank and the exchange administration were supposed to limit unauthorized investment, often described as “hot money.” But they had limited success over the last five years, said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese finance at Northwestern University.

“They never admitted there was hot money in the first place,” Mr. Shih said, and with a portion of that money now leaving, “some parts of the government don’t want to admit it.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/03/business/worldbusiness/03yuan.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-2-5 8:38:29编辑过]