February 2, 2009
Crude Oil Update
The Global Engine, Stalled
and Flooded
Investment Conclusion: We believe oil prices will
average $35/bbl in 2009, bottoming at $25/bbl in 2Q09,
as global demand is poised to post its largest
year-on-year contraction since 1982 on a sputtering
global economy. The magnitude of weakness plaguing
emerging market economies — champions of oil
demand growth since 2000 — together with continued
weakness in OECD economies leads to our belief that
oil demand will fall by 1.5 mmb/d in 2009. 
Supply constraints will likely remain a longer-term
issue, and will be intensified by the current bout of
weaker prices; however, the magnitude of demand
weakness could leave this constraint a non-issue in
2009. To prevent further increases in already
near-record-high global inventories, OPEC may be
forced to further reduce production, a feat challenged by
both financial and physical constraints. Even if OPEC is
compliant, spare capacity is poised to rise to levels not
seen since 2002.

。。。。。。

共5篇报告，包含整个商品市场，但主要是对国际原油市场的研究。 09年2月。

 

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-2-6 20:35:04编辑过]