Macau Gaming Sector
SECTOR REVIEW
What’s next after the end of the bear rally?
■  Share prices of Macau casino operators have jumped significantly
since late October, but lack of positive news from the Chinese
government regarding supportive policies have also triggered profit
taking. In our view, with mixed news ahead, share price performances
are likely to diverge from here.
■  Due to seasonality and a high base effect, we project January gross
gaming revenue (GGR) will drop 18% YoY to HK$8.5 bn, and negative
news could hurt sentiment in the very near term. On the other hand,
most US-listed casino operators will report their 4Q08 results in the
first two weeks of February. We expect mixed results, with LVS and
MPEL likely to report positive surprises from Macau operations.
Separately, junket movements should continue to affect share price
performances and LVS could suffer from significant market share loss.
■  The recent visit by the vice president of China did not bring any
positive news specifically to the gaming sector, but continues to
emphasise the central government’s support to the overall economy of
Macau. In our view, supportive policies are definitely coming, but the
initial ones could be less directly beneficial to the gaming sector. In
this context, we believe Shun Tak could be a better way to buy into
Macau’s recovery. For pure gaming plays, we prefer MPEL.