Table of Contents
Lithium 3
Lithium—Finding It and the Cost of Production 5
Minerals—the High-Cost Production 5
Brines—the Lower-Cost Production 5
Alternative Sources 6
Lithium Value Chain/Compounds 7
Lithium Uses/End Markets 8
Energy Storage (20-25% of Global Lithium Market) 8
Pharmaceutical Synthesis and Specialty Polymers (30% of Global Lithium Market) 9
Other Industrial Applications (45-50% of Global Lithium Market) 10
Global Capacity of Lithium Market 11
SQM 12
FMC 13
ROC 13
China 14
Chinese Ore Producers (Mineral Converters) 14
Chinese Brine Producers 15
Other Capacity 16
Capacity Outlook 16
Demand Outlook for Lithium 18
Demand from Traditional Lithium Markets 18
Incremental Demand from the HEV, PHEV, and EV Markets 18
Forecasts for HEV, PHEV, and EV Penetration Growth 19
Lithium Supply/Demand Balance and Pricing 22
Historical Pricing 22
Entrance of Brines Loosened The Market in the Mid to Late 1990s . . . 22
. . . But Demand Grew into Capacity by 2006 23
2009 Pricing Held Up by Discipline, But Recent Lapses Should Hurt 4Q09 and 2010
23
Supply/Demand Balance Loose Without Autos 23
HEV, PHEV, EVs Demand Can Be Met 24
Appendix 1—Electric Vehicles 26
Electric Vehicles 26
The Basics: What Is Everyone Talking About? 26
Planned Vehicle Models 29
Electric Vehicle Market Potential 30
Do the Economics Make Sense? 33
Scenario 1: $3 per Gallon Gas, Hefty Tax Credits, 34
Scenario 2: Current Battery Costs and Tax Credit 35
Scenario 3: Battery Costs Fall to Near-Term Target, No Tax Credits 35
Scenario 4: Battery Costs Fall to Near-Term Target, Tax Credits Remain 35
Potential Adoption Rates 36
Batteries Are Key 42
Lithium Ion Battery Pack Costs 44
Safety Concerns 45
Battery Lifetime 45
Battery Market Size 47
Battery Supplier Relationships 48
Connecting to the Grid 49
Charging Infrastructure 49
Shifting Economics with Vehicle to Grid Storage 50
Vehicle-to-Grid and Peak Power 52