We believe the street estimate of a 15-20% decline in 2009 gross
gaming revenue (GGR) is far too bearish on the back of the better-thanexpected
1Q09 figure as well as other signs of bottoming out, such as
strong growth in visitation via packaged tours and an improvement in
liquidity.
■
We expect casino operators to see positive earnings surprises as soon
as in 3Q09, due to: 1) higher-than-expected GGR; 2) stabilised junket
commission rates; 3) lower labour costs; 4) lower-than-expected
supply growth; 5) the potential removal of visa restrictions.
■
While we project 2009 GGR will drop 7.8% YoY to US$12.5 bn, and
increase to US$14.4 bn in 2010, which is higher than that in 2008, the
share prices of the six casino operators are trading 27-95% below their
peaks in 2008. In our view, despite the recent rally, the existing
valuations, at about 7.5x FY10 EV/EBITDA, still look attractive.
■
We believe MPEL will come out a winner in the current environment,
with the timely opening of the City of Dreams warrant market share
gain, and its relatively strong balance sheet is a big plus. However, we
like Melco even more due to the 40% discount to its market NAV.