Base Metals Data Points is an easy-to-use reference tool, which is published
monthly and aimed at providing a snapshot of some key indicators of the
condition of the major base metals markets.

We have selected various data points that we believe should have the most
relevance to investors tracking the sector's outlook. We will continue to
review the data series and look to include additional relevant data series.
Suggestions are always welcome.
All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. 09-94487 © 2009
CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
end of this report, or at the end of each section hereof, where applicable.

Table Of Contents
Monthly Commentary................................................................................. 2
Economic Update....................................................................................... 3
Aluminum Update...................................................................................... 3
Copper Update .......................................................................................... 4
Nickel Update............................................................................................ 4
Zinc Update .............................................................................................. 4
Equity And Commodity Market Performance Summary ................................... 5
Global Equity Market Update....................................................................... 8
Economic Indicators................................................................................... 9
Aluminum Market Update ..........................................................................13
Copper Market Update ..............................................................................17
Nickel Market Update ................................................................................21
Zinc Market Update...................................................................................25
Other Metals Market Update.......................................................................29
Table Of Exhibits
Exhibit 1. Market Index Performance ......................................................... 5
Exhibit 2. Commodity Market Performance ................................................. 5
Exhibit 3. Metals Companies’ Performances ................................................ 6
Exhibit 4. Metals Companies’ Performances (cont’d.) ................................... 7
Exhibit 5. World Major Stock Markets Indexes And Mining Sub-Indexes ......... 8
Exhibit 6. Broad Economic Indicators......................................................... 9
Exhibit 7. U.S. Economic Indicators ..........................................................10
Exhibit 8. Europe And Japan Economic Indicators.......................................11
Exhibit 9. Chinese Economic Indicators .....................................................12
Exhibit 10. Aluminum – Prices ...................................................................13
Exhibit 11. Aluminum – Inventory..............................................................14
Exhibit 12. Aluminum – Other Indicators.....................................................15
Exhibit 13. Aluminum – Supply/Demand.....................................................16
Exhibit 14. Copper – Prices .......................................................................17
Exhibit 15. Copper – Inventory .................................................................18
Exhibit 16. Copper – Other Indicators.........................................................19
Exhibit 17. Copper – Other Indicators.........................................................20
Exhibit 18. Nickel – Prices .........................................................................21
Exhibit 19. Nickel – Inventory....................................................................22
Exhibit 20. Nickel – Other Indicators ..........................................................23
Exhibit 21. Nickel – Other Indicators ..........................................................24
Exhibit 22. Zinc – Prices ...........................................................................25
Exhibit 23. Zinc – Inventory ......................................................................26
Exhibit 24. Zinc – Other Indicators.............................................................27
Exhibit 25. Zinc – Other Indicators.............................................................28
Exhibit 26. Other Metals – Prices ...............................................................29
Source of cover chart page: Bloomberg.

Monthly Commentary
Base metal commodities and equities started the New Year positively on the
hope that the stimulus packages globally could stop further economic downdrift
and stabilize the melt-down in metals demand. The New Year rally was brief and
ended abruptly, with the barrage of weak economic data showing further
deterioration in the global economy. In particular, the slowdown in the
developed economies is causing a rapid decline in the exports from emerging
economies in Asia. China’s economy grew at 6.8% in the fourth quarter, a much
slower pace than the 9.0% for 2008, and 13.0% in 2007.
While economic data may remain weak for some time, as the effort and stimuli
from all major economies in the world works their way to stop the worst global
recession in decades, we believe now is the time to think in terms of the
opportunity to get back into the market before it turns. We do not believe that
the long term secular demand story for metals has come to a close, but rather it
is showing a pause in demand. We continue to be of the view that the
underlying demand for metals and commodities in general, namely the
urbanization and industrialization of over 40% of the world’s population (BRIC
countries), remains strong.
Metal prices for January were generally weak with aluminum, nickel, and zinc
down 12.7%, 4.0%, and 8.9%, respectively. Copper and lead bucked the trend,
up 2.5% and 10.2%, respectively. Equities were weak with the S&P/TSX
Materials Index up 1.9% (would have been lower if gold stocks were excluded);
while the FTSE Mining Index was down 7.7%. While it is difficult to predict a
catalyst for a near-term recovery in the base metals market outside of an
unanticipated supply-side development, metal price levels are resulting in
material supply cutbacks and project postponements, which we believe bodes
well for a strong recovery in H2/09.
Economic Update
Economic data remained less than encouraging in January, with data from
around the world pointing to the ongoing inventory de-stocking and contraction
in demand in H2/08 and H1/09. OECD Leading Indicators, global industrial
production data and consumer confidence remain weak. Data from China has
also begun to accelerate on the downside. The response from the market seems
muted despite the U.S. Congress having passed the new stimulus package
proposed by the new administration after coming into office. It will likely take
some time for funds to trickle down to any real investment and demand.
Aluminum Update
Aluminum prices slumped again, down 12.7% in January as inventory levels
continued to rise (up 20.4%) on top of the 150% increase in 2008. The nearterm
outlook remains weak with slowing order growth and still significant oversupply
in the industry. Furthermore, the changing cost structure of the industry
is moving the cost curve down significantly, suggesting prices could go lower.
While production cuts and project deferments are starting they appeared to be
slow to stem the flow of material into warehouses, suggesting the industry will
take some time to work off the inventory even if demand recovers. We continue
to expect aluminum prices to underperform other commodities.

Copper Update
Copper prices held up steadily in January, despite rising stock, as market awaits
the return of Chinese buyers from their New Year holidays. Price went up 2.5%,
while inventory levels continued to rise, up a further 44.7%. With more
production cuts and project delays announced, inventory growth should be
limited to a manageable level once the market stabilizes. In our view spot prices
are now well below the all-in cash costs for a significant amount of global
production, especially U.S.-based production, such that more cuts can be
expected in the near term if prices do not recover. This would likely push the
market back into balance and see prices stabilize; and be positioned to move
higher as demand recovers. The COMEX copper market remains in a material
net short position, and could support a near-term recovery if this position is
closed out. In the near term, we expect the market to remain well supplied;
however, inventories should not go back to historical highs, positioning the
sector for a strong recovery. Though Chinese imports continue to be strong,
highlighting demand remains firm in the region, we look for prices to remain soft
in the near term pending more demand clarity.
Nickel Update
Nickel prices resumed a downward trend after a surprise rebound in December,
down 4.0% as fundamentals remained weak. Inventories rose a further 6.8%,
highlighting near-term over-supply remains an issue. Cutbacks continue in the
sector as prices remain well below the marginal cost of supply; however,
inventories remain high and it will take some time to wind down through
inventory restocking as demand recovers. With stainless demand remaining
weak a near term sustained recovery is not expected. That said, if pig iron
production in China has been curtailed at a level greater than the market
believes, the degree of oversupply may be less than anticipated. Also, many
large projects that have been expected to come on stream in the next couple of
years could move slower or have ramp-up issues that could limit oversupply.
Any recovery in the stainless steel sector would likely result in a marked
increase in demand for nickel to rebuild the inventory pipeline.
Zinc Update
Zinc weakness continued with spot prices down a further 8.9% in January and
inventories up a further 35.2%. Prices remain very low causing material supply
cuts in the industry, which are estimated to be in excess of 700,000 tonnes pa.
This is likely even greater if one includes the expected shutdown of many small
scale Chinese mines. While we continue to forecast a modest surplus for 2009, if
prices remain at current levels any surplus will be removed by capacity shut
downs. That said, beyond 2010 the market remains devoid of material new
developments and looks set for deficits. We view current zinc prices as oversold
and well below the marginal costs of the industry, and as such unsustainable. We
continue to believe zinc prices should strengthen modestly over 2009 to limit
supply losses given the longer-term outlook.