Robert Barro最新的NBER工作论文，讨论了中国未来可能的经济增长率。
根据摘要，Barro认为：
(1) China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8% per year to a range of 3-4%;


(2) China can be viewed as a middle-income convergence-success story;


(3) China's transition from middle- to upper-income status should not be hindered by a middle-income trap, which seems not to exist.



Abstract:

From the perspective of conditional convergence, China's GDP growthrate since 1990 has been surprisingly high.  However, China cannotdeviate forever from the global historical experience, and the percapita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8% per year toa range of 3 4%.  China can be viewed as a middle-incomeconvergence-success story, grouped with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru,Thailand, and Uruguay.        Upper-income convergence successes compriseChile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea,and Taiwan.  China's transition from middle- to upper-income statusshould not be hindered by a middle-income trap, which seems not toexist.        The cross-country dispersion of the log of per capita GDPshows no trend since 1870 for 25 countries with long-term data.  Thisgroup excludes emerging-market countries such as China and India. For 34 countries with data since 1896, there is clear evidence ofdeclining dispersion starting around 1980.  This pattern reflectsespecially the incorporation of China and India into the world marketeconomy.
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