Asian airports had a poor 2008, due partly to one-off shocks, and have underperformed the MSCI
Asia ex Japan index by 8% in the past 12 months. However, we argue that these events
represent the worst case and that further share price downside is limited.
We score our coverage based on four criteria: traffic growth, commercial opportunities, the
regulatory environment, and position in the capex cycle. The way that airport charges are
regulated in Asia differs from that in Europe. Due to regulatory constraints, a rise in
airport charges may not compensate for the cost of increasing capacity. This
creates earnings volatility and trading opportunities.
We recommend buying where there is compelling value with a strong long-term outlook. These
characteristics exist only with AOT, which could outperform if political risk subsides. HMIA looks
cheap but faces risk related to the discretionary leisure market. BCIA offers the potential for
long-term growth, but we think the current valuation does not justify a buy. HAECO is a
bargain and a defensive alternative to the airports, in our view.

目录

Traffic growth prospects 5
Commercial opportunities 10
Regulatory environment 12
Capex and cost 15
Earnings sensitivity 18
Valuations and ratings 19
Company profiles 25
Airports of Thailand 26
Beijing Capital 30
Hainan Meilan 35
HAECO 39
Disclosure appendix 42
Disclaimer 46