20 February 2009
media@db
Playing it safe
Paul Reynolds
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 76539
paul.reynolds1@db.com
Mark Braley, ACA
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 59904
mark.braley@db.com
Patrick Kirby
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 73560
patrick.kirby@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
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LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Periodical
Euro Media Sector Performance
20/2/09
F M A M J J A S O N D J F
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
DJ STOXX 600 MEDIA E - PRICE INDEX
DJ STOXX 600 E - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Datastream
Table of Contents
Antena 3 Pg 04
Eniro Pg 05
Reed Elsevier (UK) Pg 11
TF1 Pg 18
Thonson-Reuters Plc Pg 23
Trinity Mirror Plc Pg 24
United Business Media Pg 25
Wolters Kluwer NV Pg 41
Global Markets Research Company
We think the message of the results season so far isn't too complex - stay
defensive, avoid cyclicals. Defensives: BSkyB (BUY, 550p tgt, results 28-Jan)
showed strong subscriber progress, Reed Elsevier (BUY, 770p tgt, results 19-
Feb) grew 08 EPS at 15% constant FX and expects both revenue and EPS
progress in 2009. Cyclicals: TF1 (HOLD from Sell, E6 tgt, results 19-Feb) guided
to FY-09 ad revenues down 9% - a E200m hole in sales. Antena3 (HOLD, E4 tgt,
results 19-Feb) is seeing its ad market shrink 20%+ in Jan/Feb. We are simply too
early into the downturn (the depth of which keeps worsening anyway) for cyclical
rotation to make sense. Our favoured defensives are Reed and Vivendi. So what's
to come?
Thomson Reuters (SELL, 1000p tgt) - reports 24th Feb. The outlook, if given, is
key. Recent management commentary has slipped, with a decline in Markets
revenues now implicit. We continue to be SELLers while Market revenue is
decelerating - something we expect for several quarters yet. At present industry
headcount is still actually positive, only lurching downwards in Q4-08. With
reduced volatility across asset classes, 2009 market volumes will also be very
poor.
Wolters Kluwer (HOLD, E20 tgt) - reports 25th Feb. We don't see a lot of risk, up
or down, to our -1% organic forecast for 2009 and the shares aren't expensive on
10x 09E PE, but they lack at catalyst without a material cost savings plan.
Trinity Mirror (HOLD, 40p tgt) - reports 26th Feb. The UK ad market is very weak,
and newspaper circulations are taking a bigger than usual cyclical hit. TNI has
material debt and pension concerns. At current levels the shares are extremely
sensitive to small changes in operational and financing assumptions.
Vivendi (BUY, E25.5 tgt) - reports 2nd Mar. The stock is trading on 8x 09E PE,
having rebased estimates for Neuf Cegetal and reflecting accounting changes at
Activision. The balance sheet is robust and a 7% divi yield well covered.
UBM (BUY, 690p tgt) – reports 3rd Mar. A “safe haven” hybrid defensive: there is
some cyclical exposure, but with a strong balance sheet and 60% of profits from
data/subscriptions and shows, we see an ability to manage through near term
conditions and to benefit from a cyclical improvement in due course.
ITV (SELL, 25p tgt) - reports 4th Mar. Latest data suggests that April’s UK TV
market ad revenues could be down 20%+, after Q109 down 17%. ITV's liquidity
situation is reasonable, although it could get a lot tighter if a covenant is breached
which further downgrades to ad revenues would make more likely. ITV has a
relatively high debt burden and the pension exposures are large relative to the
market cap. We expect the dividend to be cut to conserve cash in the face of such
uncertain trading conditions.

Table of Contents
Antena 3 ................................................................................................. 4
FY08 Review .............................................................................................................................4
Eniro...................................................................................................... 5
Re-negotiating bank terms ahead of restructuring costs ..........................................................5
EBITDA 11% above DBe ..........................................................................................................6
Investment thesis ...................................................................................................................10
Reed Elsevier (UK) ................................................................................... 11
FY-08 results ...........................................................................................................................11
2008 results ............................................................................................................................11
Estimates ...............................................................................................................................15
TF1 ...................................................................................................... 18
Cutting estimates but upgrading to Hold: TP E6S...................................................................18
FY08 Results ...........................................................................................................................19
Revisions to our estimates......................................................................................................20
Valuation ................................................................................................................................21
Risks ......................................................................................................................................22
Thomson-Reuters Plc ............................................................................... 23
Q4 results preview..................................................................................................................23
Trinity Mirror Plc..................................................................................... 24
FY-08 preview .........................................................................................................................24
United Business Media ............................................................................. 25
2008 results preview - the shows must go on........................................................................25
Six key indicators ....................................................................................................................26
Organic revenue growth .........................................................................................................26
Health of end-markets in b2b..................................................................................................27
PRN US messaging volumes ..................................................................................................28
Leverage and liquidity – flexibility at the right point in the cycle .............................................29
Dividend increase – we assume a +10% payout for 2008......................................................31
Correlation with tech index – surprisingly, still a tech proxy…................................................31
Recession check .....................................................................................................................32
2008 results preview...............................................................................................................34
Outlook ..................................................................................................................................37
Valuation ................................................................................................................................39
Wolters Kluwer NV .................................................................................. 41
FY-08 preview .........................................................................................................................41