德意志银行：中国工业经济研究报告2009年2月

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收藏 2009-03-12

Global Industrials and Materials Capital Goods &amp; Machinery 25 February 2009 China Industrials Monthly February 2009: Focus on low voltage equipment Peter Reilly Research Analyst (44) 20 754 59835 <a href="mailto:peter.reilly@db.com">peter.reilly@db.com</a> Nigel Coe, CFA Research Analyst (1) 212 250 7808 <a href="mailto:nigel.coe@db.com">nigel.coe@db.com</a> Michael Tong, CFA Research Analyst (852) 2203 6167 <a href="mailto:michael.tong@db.com">michael.tong@db.com</a> Focus on low voltage electrical equipment Chinese macro data for January/February is limited due to the timing of Chinese New Year, but the improved January PMI of 45.3 (from 41.2) suggests domestic activity is holding up better than exports. This month we examine the Chinese low voltage market, highlighting the sharp contraction in Q4 as construction activity slowed, as well as the improving positions of local players relative to foreign companies. Deutsche Bank AG/London All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at <a href="http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch">http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch</a> or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Industry Update Companies featured Alfa Laval (ALFA.ST),SEK60.50 Buy Alstom (ALSO.PA),EUR36.50 Buy Andritz (ANDR.VI),EUR21.80 Buy Atlas Copco (ATCOa.ST),SEK59.00 Buy Cookson (CKSN.L),GBP11.25 Hold Danaher (DHR.N),USD52.59 Hold Dover (DOV.N),USD26.24 Hold Emerson Electric (EMR.N),USD28.99 Hold General Electric (GE.N),USD9.08 Hold Heidelberger Druck (HDDG.DE),EUR3.09 Hold Ingersoll-Rand (IR.N),USD15.54 Buy The Manitowoc Company (MTW.N),USD4.41 Hold Rockwell Automation (ROK.N),USD21.66 Hold Sandvik (SAND.ST),SEK46.00 Hold Schneider Electric (SCHN.PA),EUR49.52 Hold Siemens (SIEGn.DE),EUR41.12 Buy SKF (SKFb.ST),SEK71.25 Hold SPX Corporation (SPW.N),USD42.27 Hold United Technologies (UTX.N),USD43.00 Buy Global Markets Research Company Macro data – suffering from weaker external demand China does not report FAI (Fixed Asset Investment) and IVA (Industrial Value Added) data for January due to the timing of Chinese New Year. December’s IVA growth of 5.7% was a modest improvement from the 5.4% seen in November, but still a far cry from the 16.0% average seen in H108. FAI growth slowed modestly to 22% in December, from 23-24% in October-November, but our economists look for further deceleration to 10% FAI growth in 2008 and 8% in 2009. Industrial indicators remain mixed - in December, power output dropped for the third consecutive month to -7% YoY, although the PMI confidence survey rebounded to 45.3 in January, driven by domestic orders. Feature article – Electrical equipment This month we examine the Low Voltage electrical equipment market. Customs statistics show that imports/exports of low voltage equipment in China dropped 40% in Q4, as the property market contracted, highlighting the construction driven (rather than infrastructure driven) nature of the industry. We examine Schneider’s position in China, where China reached 8% of group sales in 2008, from 7% in 2007. We also look at the latest electrical equipment sector revenue and profit data; local companies are growing both sales and profits at a faster rate than foreign players in China, suggesting some success in both market share gains and in accessing higher-margin product areas. China industrial news-flow In this month’s news flow, we highlight numerous news items regarding wind power development in China. China aims to expand its wind power generating capacity to 100GW by 2020, representing a CAGR of 19.2% for the next 12 years. Western companies like ABB, SKF, Alstom and Siemens all plan to increase their presence in the third biggest wind power market in the world. Valuation and risks For our valuation methodology in Europe, we prefer to use EV/EBIT, sum of the parts for complex companies (particularly when undergoing changes), and DCF selectively. In the US our preferred valuation methodology is DCF, supporting this with relative multiple analysis with a preference for P/E and EV/EBITDA. The capital goods sector is very diverse. Demand for industrial products correlates with GDP over time but can diverge significantly over the shorter term depending on company-specific factors. Capital goods companies tend to be cash generative and also tend to use surplus cash flow to make acquisitions. Acquisitions are, in our view, inherently risky -- and the larger the acquisition, the greater the risk. (See page 27 for more detail).Table of Contents Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3 Introduction..............................................................................................................................3 China forecasts .................................................................................. 4 The big picture................................................................................... 6 Chinese inflation.......................................................................................................................6 Industrial value added ...............................................................................................................7 Urban Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) .........................................................................................8 Electricity Generation................................................................................................................9 Chinese PMI............................................................................................................................10 OECD CLI...............................................................................................................................11 China’s Electrical Equipment Industry........................................... 12 Low voltage apparatus – challenging ahead ...........................................................................12 Schneider in China ..................................................................................................................14 Update -Top 100 electrical companies in 2007 .......................................................................18 Industrial news flow........................................................................ 21 Macro economy......................................................................................................................21 Industrial ................................................................................................................................22 Company news .......................................................................................................................23 Valuation &amp; risks ............................................................................. 26 Europe....................................................................................................................................26 US ..........................................................................................................................................26 Risks ......................................................................................................................................26