试验证明有residual。
data example3_1;
input x @@;
difx=dif(dif(x));
time=_n_;
datalines;
112 118 132 129 121 135 148 148 136 119 104 118
115 126 141 135 125 149 170 170 158 133 114 140
; run;
proc arima data=example3_1 ;
identify Var=x(1,1) ;
estimate q=1 ;
forecast out=results;
quit;
proc print data=results;
run;
output
Obs x FORECAST STD L95 U95 RESIDUAL
1 112 . . . . .
2 118 . . . . .
3 132 123.606 15.5403 93.148 154.065 8.3936
4 129 137.213 15.5403 106.754 167.671 -8.2127
5 121 133.819 15.5403 103.361 164.278 -12.8191
6 135 125.425 15.5403 94.967 155.884 9.5746
7 148 139.032 15.5403 108.573 169.490 8.9682
8 148 151.638 15.5403 121.180 182.097 -3.6381
9 136 151.244 15.5403 120.786 181.703 -15.2445
10 119 138.851 15.5403 108.392 169.309 -19.8508
11 104 121.457 15.5403 90.999 151.916 -17.4571
12 118 106.063 15.5403 75.605 136.522 11.9366
13 115 119.670 15.5403 89.211 150.128 -4.6698
14 126 116.276 15.5403 85.818 146.735 9.7238
15 141 126.883 15.5403 96.424 157.341 14.1175
16 135 141.489 15.5403 111.030 171.947 -6.4889
17 125 135.095 15.5403 104.637 165.554 -10.0953
18 149 124.702 15.5403 94.243 155.160 24.2984
19 170 148.308 15.5403 117.850 178.766 21.6920
20 170 168.914 15.5403 138.456 199.373 1.0856
21 158 168.521 15.5403 138.062 198.979 -10.5208
22 133 156.127 15.5403 125.669 186.586 -23.1271
23 114 130.733 15.5403 100.275 161.192 -16.7334
24 140 111.340 15.5403 80.881 141.798 28.6603