其一:检验疑问:
| Redundant Fixed Effects Tests |
| Pool: LOAN | |
| Test cross-section and period fixed effects |
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| Effects Test | Statistic | d.f. | Prob. |
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| Cross-section F | 37.456022 | (8,166) | 0.0000 |
| Cross-section Chi-square | 204.225630 | 8 | 0.0000 |
| Period F | 1.065008 | (21,166) | 0.3905 |
| Period Chi-square | 25.026154 | 21 | 0.2460 |
| Cross-Section/Period F | 12.041072 | (29,166) | 0.0000 |
| Cross-Section/Period Chi-square | 224.244915 | 29 | 0.0000 |
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这是不是表明只有CROSS- Section是固定的,通过了检验,但是PERIOD 不是固定的?
然后这个检验只用看这里通过与否,做了检验带来的R值啊那些变化不是模型的变化吧?
其三:加入ar(4)可以使得所有解释变量通过T检验,但是拟合优度稍微下降,AR(2)拟合优度高,但是AR(2)自身通不过T检验(P值
为0.51),AR(5)拟合优度就下降的多了,就不考虑之后
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| Included observations: 18 after adjustments | |
| Cross-sections included: 9 | | |
| Total pool (balanced) observations: 162 | |
| Iterate coefficients after one-step weighting matrix |
| Convergence achieved after 15 total coef iterations |
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| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
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| C | 137.6160 | 4.839253 | 28.43744 | 0.0000 |
| DR? | 212.4604 | 97.05961 | 2.188968 | 0.0301 |
| DCJL? | -14.98573 | 3.574350 | -4.192576 | 0.0000 |
| AR(4) | -0.260654 | 0.102454 | -2.544099 | 0.0120 |
| Fixed Effects (Cross) | | | | |
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| | Effects Specification | | |
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| Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) | |
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| | Weighted Statistics | | |
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| R-squared | 0.671463 | Mean dependent var | 0.828570 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.647370 | S.D. dependent var | 1.324255 |
| S.E. of regression | 0.877917 | Sum squared resid | 115.6107 |
| F-statistic | 27.86994 | Durbin-Watson stat | 2.026346 |
| Prob(F-statistic) | 0.000000 | | | |
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不太明白有时候是拟合优度至上,哪怕有解释变量通不过T检验,
还是先让所有变量通过T检验较为重要?
然后这是之前不加任何AR时候的 结果:
| | Weighted Statistics | | | |
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| | R-squared | 0.701189 |
| | Adjusted R-squared | 0.685210 |
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| Variable | t | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | C |
| 3.533738 | 38.39792 | 0.0000 | | DR? |
| 60.62198 | 1.590852 | 0.1133 | | DCJL? |
| 2.738597 | -4.942802 | 0.0000 |
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小白求帮助,到底哪一个作为最终结果比较恰当