Share prices move with BDI - indicators
point to BDI picking up in 4Q09-1Q10
􀀗 Oversupply remains an issue; recovery
in 4Q09-1Q10 will be mild
􀀗 Two stocks offering compelling value:
Pacific Basin and Sinotrans Shipping
Shipping share prices are sensitive to the BDI regardless
of segments or exposure to the spot market. The correlation
to the BDI is even stronger than earnings momentum, which
usually provides reliable price performance signals for
cyclical stocks.
Recovery unsustainable: Demand variables indicate BDI
recovering in 4Q09-1Q10. We believe the recovery will be
mild given huge supply growth. We will be monitoring
variables relating to steel production, scrapping levels and
new building cancellation for BDI and share price
performance.
Overweight (V) Pacific Basin and Sinotrans Shipping:
Both stocks offer compelling value. Pacific Basin is top
pick, operating within handysize segment which has higher
scrapping potential due to ageing global fleet.
Risks to rating include faster than expected recovery of
demand and higher than expected scrapping and/or
cancellation of new orders.

Summary 4
No recovery in sight 7
Company profiles 14
China Cosco (1919) 15
Pacific Basin (2343) 17
Sinotrans Shipping (316) 19
STX Pan Ocean (STX SP) 21
Neptune Orient (NOL) 23
Orient Overseas (316) 25
Appendix 27
Disclosure appendix 32
Disclaimer 35