IMF 5月9日出版的刊物，目录如下：

Contents
Definitions vii
Executive Summary x
I. Overview 1
Why Has Asia Been So Hard Hit? 2
External Shocks Have Rapidly Fed through to Domestic Demand 9
A Long Recovery Ahead 12
What Role for Policy? 22
II. Recessions and Recoveries in Asia: What Can the Past Teach Us about the Present
Recession? 29
Preliminary Considerations 30
Recessions in Asia: How Long and Deep? 32
Past Recoveries: How Vigorous? 35
Policy Responses and Impacts 37
Concluding Remarks 39
Appendix 2.1 40
III. How Vulnerable Is Corporate Asia? 43
How Badly Has the Corporate Sector Been Hit? 44
How Large Are the Default Risks? 45
How Large Are the Likely Default Losses? 50
Why Is Asia’s Corporate Sector Expected to Remain So Resilient? 51
How Badly Will the Banks Be Affected? 53
Stress Testing the Corporate Sector 54
Conclusions 56
Appendix 3.1. Using Vector Autoregressions to Analyze the Transmission of Shocks
across Sectors 56
Appendix 3.2. Micro-Level Evidence on Real Macro-Financial Linkages 57
Appendix 3.3. Computation of Banks’ Expected Losses from Corporate Sector Distress 57
Appendix 3.4. Stress Testing Corporate Balance Sheets 58
IV. Revisiting Japan’s Lost Decade 59
Background: Stylized Facts from Japan’s Lost Decade 59
Fiscal Policy: Did Stimulus Work? 63
iii
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ASIA AND PACIFIC
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan’s Approach to Credit Easing 68
Financial Sector Policies: Resolving Japan’s Banking Crisis and Fiscal Costs 73
Conclusions 80
References 81
Boxes
1.1 How Did the Crisis Affect Low-Income Countries in Asia? 5
1.2 The Global Financial Crisis and Trade Finance in Asia 10
1.3 Housing Prices: Could Further Declines Threaten Growth? 14
1.4 Financial Conditions in Key Asian Economies 17
1.5 The Case for Fiscal Stimulus 25
3.1 How Is the Economic Downturn Affecting China’s Corporate Sector? 46
4.1 IMF Seminar on Japan-U.S. Parallels: Summary of Proceedings 60
4.2 Japan: Key Financial System Reforms, 1996–2003 75
Tables
1.1 Asia: Real GDP 16
2A.1 Asia: Identification of Previous Recessions since 1980 40
3.1 Selected Asia: Share of Debt of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than
One, by Size, 2007 47
3.2 Asia: Potential Impact on Bank Capital from Corporate Sector Distress 53
3A.1 Summary: Estimation Results 57
4.1 Key Events in Japan’s Banking Crisis 63
4.2 Japan: Major Tax Cuts during the 1990s 65
4.3 Japan: Estimated Multipliers 67
4.4 Summary of Bank Support Measures in Asia 79
Figures
1.1 Asia: 2008Q4 GDP Growth—Actual vs. Predicted 1
1.2 2008Q4 GDP Growth 1
1.3 Asia: Export Exposure to G-2 2
1.4 Emerging Asia Intraregional Exports and United States Non-Oil Imports 2
1.5 Share of Advanced Manufacturing Value-Added in GDP 2
1.6 Share of Advanced Manufacturing Value-Added in GDP and 2008Q4 GDP Growth 3
1.7 Emerging Asia (Excluding China and India): Direction of Exports 3
1.8 China: Imports of Parts and Components 3
1.9 Changes in International Claims of Reporting Banks vis-à-vis Asia 4
1.10 Emerging Asia: External Bond Issuances 4
1.11 Emerging Markets: Stock Market Performance 7
iv
CONTENTS
1.12 Selected Asia: Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 8
1.13 Emerging Asia: Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves 8
1.14 Selected Asia: Changes in Growth of Credit to Private Sector and Interest Rates 8
1.15 Selected Asia: Inventories and Shipments 9
1.16 Selected Emerging Asia: Contributions to 2008Q4 GDP Growth 9
1.17 Selected Asia: Real Private Investment in Machinery and Equipment and
Real Residential Investment 12
1.18 Selected Asia: Employment Growth 12
1.19 Selected Asia: Unemployment Rate 12
1.20 Japan, China, and India: Contributions to Growth 13
1.21 Selected Asia: Contributions to Growth 13
1.22 Asia: Output Gap and Potential Output Growth 19
1.23 Asia: Consumer Prices 20
1.24 Asia: Current Account Balance 20
1.25 Emerging Asia: Net Private Capital Flows 20
1.26 Asia: GDP Growth 21
1.27 Asia: Effect on GDP Growth from Weaker Consumption Growth 21
1.28 Foreign Reserves over External Financing Requirements 22
1.29 Selected Emerging Asia: Projected Net Private Capital Flows 22
1.30 Asia: Risk Factors 23
1.31 Asia: Policy Rates 23
1.32 Central Bank Balance Sheet: Total Assets 23
1.33 Discretionary Fiscal Measures, 2009 and 2010 24
1.34 Composition of Fiscal Stimulus Measures, 2009 24
1.35 Real Private Consumption Expenditure 27
2.1 Recessions, Recoveries and Expansions 30
2.2 Recession Timeline since 1980 31
2.3 Asia and United States: Recession Timeline since 1980 31
2.4 Asia: Previous Recessions since 1980 (Median real level, peak of the recessions=100) 32
2.5 Cumulative Output Loss in Previous Recessions since 1980 32
2.6 Asia: Previous Recessions since 1980 (Median) 33
2.7 Asia: Credit to Private Sector during Previous Recessions since 1980 33
2.8 Asia by Regional Groups: Cumulative Output Loss during Previous Recessions since 1980 34
2.9 Asia by Type of Export Activity: Real Gross Domestic Product during 2000–01 Recession 34
2.10 Asia: Response of Real Gross Fixed Investment Growth to a Shock to Real Export Growth 34
2.11 Asia: Real Gross Fixed Investment during Previous Recessions since1980 35
2.12 Selected Asia: Real Private Consumption Expenditure during the Asian Crisis 36
2.13 Asia: Real Exports of Goods and Services during Previous Recessions since 1980 36
2.14 Asia: Real Effective Exchange Rate during Previous Recessions since 1980 36
2.15 Asia: Previous Recessions since 1980 by Type of Export Intensity of the Economies 37
2.16 Average Quarterly Growth during Recovery Phase 37
2.17 Asia: Change in Trend GDP Growth during Previous Recessions since 1980 37
2.18 Asia: Nominal Policy Rates during Previous Recessions since 1980 38
2.19 Asia: Fiscal Indicators during Previous Recessions since 1980 38
2.20 Asia: Impact of Policy Actions during Previous Recessions since 1980 39
2.21 Asia: Change in Fiscal Balance in Selected Recessions 39
v
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ASIA AND PACIFIC
vi
3.1 Selected Asia: Decline in Industrial Production 44
3.2 Asia: Share of Debt of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than One 44
3.3 Selected Asia: Corporate Bankruptcies 45
3.4 Emerging Asia: Stock Market Performance 45
3.5 Asia Excluding Japan: Equity Performance by Sector 45
3.6 Korea: Lending by Size of Companies 47
3.7 Asia: Credit Default Swap Spreads 48
3.8 Asia: One-Year-Ahead Default Probability of Nonfinancial Corporates 48
3.9 Selected Asia: Historical Expected Default Frequency 49
3.10 Asia: Change in Industrial Production—Actual vs. Predicted 49
3.11 Expected Implication of Higher Default Risks on Firm Investment 50
3.12 Selected Asia: Cumulative Impact on Banks’ Default Probabilities from Shock to Corporate
Default Probabilities, after 10 months 50
3.13 Asia: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector—Annual Average Expected Losses One Year Ahead 51
3.14 Asia: Leverage (Debt-to-Equity Ratio) 52
3.15 Asia: Profitability (Return on Assets) 52
3.16 Asia: Liquidity (Quick Ratio) 52
3.17 Asia: Banking Sector—Expected Losses from Corporate Sector Distress One-Year-Ahead 53
3.18 Profit Shock vs. Interest Rate Shock: Share of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than One 54
3.19 Profit Shock vs. Interest Rate Shock: Share of Impaired Debt of Firms with Interest
Cover Ratio Less than One 55
3.20 Share of Debt of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than One, by Size 55
3.21 Share of Debt of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than One, by Sector 55
4.1 Japan’s Twin Bubbles: Stock Market and Real Estate 62
4.2 Japan: Growth and Unemployment 62
4.3 Japan: Inflation and Output Gap 62
4.4 Japan: “Three Excesses” of Corporate Sector 63
4.5 Japan: Fiscal Situation of the General Government 65
4.6 Japan: GDP Growth and Supplementary Fiscal Stimulus Package 65
4.7 Japan: Structural Balance of the General Government 66
4.8 Japan: Central Government Public Investment 66
4.9 Japan: Real Public Investment 66
4.10 Japan: Financial Surplus of Nonfinancial Corporate Sector 67
4.11 Japan: Share of Central Government Spending 67
4.12 Japan: Fiscal Balance and General Government Debt 68
4.13 Japan: Interest Rates 69
4.14 Japan: Bank Lending 69
4.15 Japan: Credit Spreads 70
4.16 Bank of Japan: Assets and Balance of Banknotes in Circulation 70
4.17 Japan: Monetary Aggregates 71
4.18 Japan Premium 74
4.19 Cumulative Loans Losses of Japanese Banks since 1992 74
4.20 Japan: Nonperforming Loans 77