IMF 5月9日出版的刊物，目录如下：

Contents
Executive Summary vii
1. Outlook: Galvanizing Recovery 1
Synchronized Recession 1
Impromptu Policy Reaction 6
Uncertain Outlook 13
Calling for a Well-Articulated and Effectively Coordinated Policy Response 20
2. Fiscal Policy in Advanced Countries: Effectiveness, Coordination, and Solvency Issues 27
Overview 27
Fiscal Costs of the Crisis 28
Making the Most Out of Fiscal Interventions 29
Treasuring Fiscal Solvency 34
Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability: Policy Options 41
Conclusions and Policy Implications 44
3. European Emerging Economies in the Crisis: Impact and Recovery 45
Who Got Hurt More? Stylized Facts 45
What Explains the Widened Spreads: Known Vulnerabilities or the Convergence
Criteria Checklist? 47
Banking Sector Holds a Key to the Recovery from the Crisis 51
Policy Implications 57
References 59
Boxes
1. Has the Financial Crisis Impaired Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area? 9
2. Growth Prospects in Emerging Europe After the Global Crisis 18
3. A Case Study in Coordination: Deposit Guarantee 22
4. Redesigning Financial Supervision in the European Union 24
5. Sovereign Financing Needs of Advanced Economies and the Rollover Risk 38
6. Is the Stability and Growth Pact an Obstacle to Adequate Fiscal Stabilization? 43
7. Crisis Duration Across Emerging Market 52
Tables
1. European Countries: Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation, 2006–10 2
2. European Countries: External and Fiscal Balances, 2006–10 8
3. IMF Support for European Countries Affected by the Global Crisis 14
4. Headline Support for the Financial Sector and Up-Front Financing Need 28
5. Advanced European Economies: Estimated Cost of Discretionary Measures, 2008–10 30
6. Ranges of Fiscal Multipliers Used by IMF Country Teams 31
7. The Case for Fiscal Stimulus: Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Under Distressed Financial
Markets 33
CONTENTS
iv
8. Coordination Gains: Cumulated Effects of Fiscal Stimulus on a Large Euro Area Country 34
9. Sovereign Spreads: Estimated Panel Regression 40
10. Solvency Concerns Increases Risk Premiums Thereby Reducing the Effectiveness of
Fiscal Stimulus 41
11. A Snapshot of Emerging Markets 46
12. Did the Convergence Criteria Matter? 50
13. Correlation with Loan Loss Provisions 54
14. Banks in Emerging Europe Were Imprudent in the Past 54
15. Consumption Growth Is Correlated with Credit Growth 56
16. Consumption Growth Depends upon Credit Growth 56
Figures
1. Euro Area: Contribution to Growth, 2006–08 1
2. Selected European Countries: Headline and Core Inflation, January 2006–February 2009 3
3. iTraxx Credit Default Swap Europe Financials’ Index, March 2007–April 2009 3
4. Generalized Impulse Response Functions: Rate of Growth of Real GDP in Response to
Negative Standard Error Shock to U.S. Equity Price Growth Rate 4
5. Estimating Shifts in the Global Price of Risk, 2007–March 2009 4
6. Selected European Countries: Growth of Real Credit to Private Sector, 2006–January
2009 4
7. Europe, Asia, and United States: Value of Trade, 1995–2007 5
8. Trade and Financial Integration Within Europe 5
9. Euro Area and United Kingdom: Liquidity Premium, 2007–April 2009 6
10. Government Support, Including Guarantees, to Banks, 2008–09 12
11. New Member States: Country-Specific Components of Sovereign Spreads, September
2008–January 2009 13
12. Key Short-Term Indicators 16
13. Selected Advanced Economies: Break-Even Inflation, 2007–April 2009 20
14. Germany, France, and Italy: Trade and GDP, 1991–2008 20
15. Advanced European Economies: Estimated Impact of Automatic Stabilizers on Fiscal
Balances, 2008–09 29
16. Advanced European Economies: Fiscal Revenues During Episodes of House and Equity
Price Busts 30
17. Projected Changes in Public Debt 34
18. Selected Euro Area Countries: Sovereign Spreads and Financial Institutions’ Expected
Defaut Probabilities, 2008–January 2009 36
19. Estimated Common Component in Sovereign Spreads, 2001–January 2009 40
20. Contributions to the Change in Spreads 40
21. EMBIG Spreads, 2005–November 2008 47
22. Spreads and Banking System Characteristics 48
23. Residuals from the Fixed Effects Regression for Sovereign Spreads, January 2001–
October 2008 48