中国经济转型能否持续？ 作者：英国《金融时报》金奇(James Kynge) 2009-05-15

中国正向“大陆型经济”转变。正如19世纪的美国经济，其增长模式从以出口为导向，转向更多地依赖内在动力，目前中国也正“向内”寻找驱动自身经济增长的动力。

中国目前的转型仍处于初期阶段，但有证据表明：有关中国经济依赖出口、由长三角和珠三角地区驱动的传统观点，已与现实情况不符。这里并不是说，贸易对中国已变得不那么重要；而是说，中国的增长动力正越来越多地源自内部。今年以来，中国经济增速为全球首位。

一系列指标显示，中国正向“大陆型经济”转变：这个全球第一人口大国的经济，正逐渐转向“自我驱动型”。当然，有些地方必须加以说明，但首先来看一下证据：

中国今年的零售状况明显好于其它大型经济体，其3月份实际零售额同比增长15.9%。但相对于总体趋势，更重要的是零售支出的构成。

消费支出最为强劲的是内地二三线城市，而非长江及珠江三角洲地区等主要传统增长源。《中国投资参考》(China Confidential) 3月份的一份调查，对中国189个城市大约6400万户中高收入家庭的消费支出意向进行了评估，调查显示，二三线城市的消费倾向更为强烈。

总体而言，在15个二线城市，有51%的受访者预计今年支出将多于去年——这一比例较一线城市整整高出9个百分点。在170个三线城市，49%的受访者表示今年将增加支出。

这种趋势造成的后果之一，是企业纷纷采取行动，争夺内地消费者的消费能力。酒店、付费培训和零售等众多行业的企业，正寻求将内陆地区纳入销售版图，以抵消沿海大城市销售增长疲软的不利影响。经济型酒店行业领先企业如家快捷酒店(Home Inns and Hotels Management)的一家子公司，计划在2010年年底前新开250家酒店。如家快捷旗下已有600多家酒店。

沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)计划将其在重庆的门店从5家增至9家，这意味着沃尔玛重庆门店数量将超过北京和天津。重庆位于长江上游，距上海2500公里。

中国向“大陆型经济”转变还体现在以下方面：国内港口货运同比持续增长，而外贸货运量不断下滑。全国房地产成交量激增。

近期的重大改革可能也有助于创造内部动力。一项医疗方案的目标是2011年前在基础医疗保障及基层诊所投入8500亿元人民币，这在一定程度上是为了增加人们的可自由支配收入。农业用地逐渐货币化——农民开始以土地作为抵押品申请贷款，或作为创办企业的注册资本——日后这有望推动农村经济转型。

在全球需求日渐萎缩的背景下，中国要实现强劲增长，打开内部增长源至关重要。今年一季度，中国对外贸易额同比下降24.9%，而同期内国内生产总值(GDP)增长6.1%。

经济增长部分得益于4万亿元人民币财政刺激方案的初期效应，但其中大部分计划实施的基础设施支出尚未落实。

持怀疑态度的人指出，中国今年以来的经济表现，是在政府大力干预下取得的，而这种干预最终是无法持续的。他们表示，短时间内这种支出将拉动经济增长，但长远来看收效甚微，只会加剧工业产能过剩的局面。这种论点并非毫无可取之处，但它忽略了一种更有意思的新景象：中国的经济增长正越来越源于自身和“大陆型经济”的驱动。

Chinese tap an inner dynamic to drive growth
By James Kynge 2009-05-15

China is going continental. Just as the US during the 19th century underwent a transition from export-oriented growth to a greater reliance on inner dynamism, so China is looking inwards for the engine to drive its economy.

In China's case it is still early days, but evidence suggests the conventional view of an export-dependent, river delta-driven economy no longer matches the reality. The argument here is not that trade has somehow become unimportant to China, but rather that the energy generating the world's fastest economic growth rate this year is increasingly coming from within.

A series of indicators reveals the shift to “China Continental” – the transition of the world's most populous country into an increasingly self-propelling economic force. There are caveats, of course, but first the evidence.

Retail sales have held up much better in China this year than in other big economies, growing at a real 15.9 per cent in March year-on-year. But more important than the overall trend is the composition of the retail spending.

The most robust consumer spending figures are coming from inland and lower-tier cities rather than from the traditional growth powerhouses clustered around the Yangtze and Pearl river deltas. A China Confidential survey assessing consumer spending intentions among an estimated 64m middle and upper income households in 189 cities in March showed a much higher propensity to spend in lower-tier cities.

Overall, 51 per cent of respondents in 15 second-tier cities said they planned to increase spending this year from last – a full 9 percentage points more than the number from the first tier. In 170 third-tier cities, 49 per cent of respondents said they would boost their spending this year.

One upshot of this trend is a corporate rush to capture the spending power of the inland consumer. In sectors as diverse as hotels, paid-for education and general retail, companies are seeking to offset slackening sales growth in the big coastal cities by embracing China's continental geography. A subsidiary of Home Inns and Hotels Management, the budget hotel industry leader which already has a network of more than 600 hotels, aims to open 250 outlets by the end of 2010.

Wal-Mart plans to increase the number of its stores from five to nine in Chongqing, a city 2,500km up the Yangtze river from Shanghai. This will mean it has more stores in Chongqing than in Beijing or Tianjin.

Other signs of the China Continental theme can be seen in the fact that domestically bound cargo traffic through ports is increasing year-on-year, while foreign trade volumes are slumping. Property transactions are surging across the country.

Recent key reforms may also work to create inner-dynamism. A healthcare plan, which envisages spending Rmb850bn ($125bn,