汇率和金融脆弱性，EXCHANGE RATES AND FINANCIAL FRAGILITY，Barry Eichengreen Ricardo Hausmann，发表于NBER Working Papers         7418， Nov 1999。

Abstract

In this paperwe analyze three views of the relationship between the exchange rateand financial fragility: (1) the moral hazard hypothesis, according towhich pegged exchange rates offer implicit insurance against exchangerisk and thereby encourage reckless borrowing and lending; (2) theoriginal sin hypothesis, which emphasizes an incompleteness infinancial markets which prevents the domestic currency from being usedto borrow abroad or to borrow long term even domestically; and (3) thecommitment problem hypothesis, which sees financial crises as resultingfrom neither moral hazard nor original sin but from the weakness of theinstitutions that address commitment problems. We examine the evidenceon these hypotheses and draw out their implications for exchange-ratepolicy in emerging markets.