Contents
Page
Preface ....................................................................................................................................... ii
Executive Summary................................................................................................................ xiii
Part One
Trends
I. Global Trends ................................................................................................................. 3
A. Trends in foreign direct investment and international production ....................................... 3
1. Overall trends ............................................................................................................ 3
2. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions ...................................................................... 7
(a) Overall trends ................................................................................................. 7
(b) Trends by region and major countries .......................................................... 10
(c) Trends by industry ........................................................................................ 15
3. Foreign direct investment and international production .......................................... 16
4. Foreign direct investment and infrastructure ........................................................... 18
(a) Trends ........................................................................................................... 18
(b) Financing infrastructure ............................................................................... 20
(c) Constraints and the potential for increased
foreign direct investment in infrastructure ................................................... 25
B. The largest transnational corporations ............................................................................... 29
1. Trends and salient features of the top 100 ............................................................... 29
2. Salient features of the top 50 transnational corporations
from developing countries ....................................................................................... 33
3. Future investment plans ........................................................................................... 36
Notes ................................................................................................................................ 40
II. Regional Trends ........................................................................................................... 43
A. Developed countries .......................................................................................................... 43
1. United States and Western Europe .......................................................................... 43
(a) Trends in foreign direct investment ............................................................. 43
(b) Has the Asian century arrived for the United States? .................................. 45
2. Japan ........................................................................................................................ 46
(a) Trends in foreign direct investment ............................................................. 46
(b) Why is Japanese foreign direct investment in Africa
and Central and Eastern Europe so small? ................................................... 48
B. Developing countries ......................................................................................................... 50
1. Asia ............................................................................................................................... 51
(a) Trends ........................................................................................................... 51
(b) China: is the heat beginning to cool down? ................................................. 53
2. Latin America and the Caribbean ................................................................................. 57
(a) Trends ........................................................................................................... 57
(b) “Lumpiness” of foreign direct investment ................................................... 57
3. Africa ............................................................................................................................ 58
C. Central and Eastern Europe ............................................................................................... 64
1. Trends ...................................................................................................................... 64
2. Foreign direct investment and economic growth:
the link for Central and Eastern Europe .................................................................. 65
Notes ................................................................................................................................ 68
Part Two
Foreign direct investment and trade: interlinkages and policy implications
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 73
III. Foreign direct investment and trade:
the traditional sequential relationship ....................................................................... 75
A. The manufacturing sector .................................................................................................. 75
1. The sequence ........................................................................................................... 75
2. Impact of foreign direct investment on trade .......................................................... 79
B. The natural resources sector .............................................................................................. 81
1. The sequence ........................................................................................................... 81
2. Impact of foreign direct investment on trade .......................................................... 84
C. The services sector ............................................................................................................. 86
1. The truncated sequence ........................................................................................... 86
2. Impact of foreign direct investment on trade .......................................................... 89
D. The importance of intersectoral linkages ........................................................................... 91
Notes .......................................................................................................................................... 92
IV. Foreign direct investment and trade relationships in a liberalizing
and globalizing world economy................................................................................... 95
A. The new environment for foreign direct investment and trade.......................................... 95
B. Foreign direct investment and trade: the relationship in the new environment ................ 98
1. The decreasing relevance of the sequence .............................................................. 98
2. Integrated international production and the relationship
between foreign direct investment and trade ........................................................... 99
(a) Complex integration strategies and corporate
systems of production and trade ................................................................... 99


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