Bolstered by supportive policies and regained confidence in the private sector,
China has been recovering faster than the market had expected. Except exports,
almost all major macro indicators surprised on the upside in May, and the
momentum could be maintained in June. Manufacturing PMI will likely increase,
growth of industrial production and fixed asset investment could accelerate, and
retail sales growth might remain robust (quicken if adjusted for holiday effects). By
contrast, export growth will stay around the bottom for another several months.
Year-on-year CPI inflation is to tick up a bit while PPI inflation is to sink further
despite a sequential rise in raw material prices. Policy stance will remain largely
intact, though more guidance might be issued from Beijing regarding a possible
spike in incremental loans in June.
报告来源:
ML-China Economics-June Marco Data Forecast-090629
http://www.55188.com/viewthread.php?tid=2896397&from^^uid=1519588