Analogies and Theories: Formal Models of Reasoning (Lipsey Lectures)

by Itzhak Gilboa (Author), Larry Samuelson (Author), David Schmeidler (Author)



The book describes formal models of reasoning that are aimed at capturing the way that economic agents, and decision makers in general think about their environment and make predictions based on their past experience. The focus is on analogies (case-based reasoning) and general theories (rule-based reasoning), and on the interaction between them, as well as between them and Bayesian reasoning. A unified approach allows one to study the dynamics of inductive reasoning in terms of the mode of reasoning that is used to generate predictions.

• Examines the way economic agents reason about uncertainty
• Offers mathematical models of case-based reasoning rule-based reasoning
• Touches on issues that are common to statistics, philosophy, psychology, and artificial intelligence
• Presents a unified model that captures both reasoning by general rules and reasoning by analogies to specific cases

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach
3. Subjectivity in Inductive Inference
4. Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework
5. Analogies and Theories: The Role of Simplicity and the Emergence of Norms
6. The Predictive Role of Counterfactuals