《Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?》

此篇论文发表在2016年Journal of Economic Perspectives上。文中作者讨论了不使用化石燃料的可行性。 作者最终得出的结论是只依赖经济供求关系不使用行政干预的话，化石燃料作为主要的生产能源的趋势将继续下去。

简介

Scientists believe significant climate change is unavoidable without a drastic reduction in the emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels. However, few countries have implemented comprehensive policies that price this externality or devote serious resources todeveloping low-carbon energy sources. In many respects, the world is betting that we will greatly reduce the use of fossil fuels because we will run out of inexpensive fossil fuels (there will be decreases in supply) and/or technological advances will lead to the discovery of less-expensivelow-carbon technologies (there will be decreases in demand). The historical record indicates that the supply of fossil fuels has consistently increased over time and that their relative price advantage over low-carbon energy sources has not declined substantially over time. Without robustefforts to correct the market failures around greenhouse gases, relying on supply and/or demand forces to limit greenhouse gas emissions is relying heavily on hope.