European Hotels
SECTOR REVIEW
What price deteriorating fundamentals?
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View: Short-term RevPAR visibility is already poor and the rate of decline is
accelerating—this appears to be the case for every segment and across
every geography. Occupancy declines are leading the way but ARR is also
deteriorating. We are therefore revising down our industry 2009E and 2010E
RevPAR assumptions—for 2009 we now forecast a US RevPAR decline of
21% (15% previously), a US economy RevPAR decline of just under 15%
(10% previously), a European RevPAR decline of just under 20% (13%
previously), a London RevPAR decline of c22% (13% previously) and a UK
regional RevPAR decline of 16.5% (12% previously). For 2010 we forecast
small negative declines, principally driven by the full-year impact of the
current RevPAR decline.
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Revised earnings estimates: We have reduced our EBITDA forecasts for
all the companies in our Hotels coverage—2009E EBITDA falls from