Now back to our U.S. preview.
The United States is in the 20th month of a recessionthat has been by far the longest and most severe of the post-warperiod.  While comparisons with the Great Depression are frequent andappropriate (especially if we look at the pace of contraction inindustrial production), the aggressiveness of policy measures hassignificantly reduced the probability of a near-depression.  Economicactivity fell off a cliff in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009, with two consecutivequarters of sharp contraction – by 6.3% and 5.5% respectively – in linewith our previous forecasts.  The general consensus is that thisrecession will end sometime in the second half of 2009.  While RGEMonitor expects more quarters of negative real GDP growth in 2009, wealso expect the pace of contraction of economic activity to slowsignificantly.  We forecast negative real GDP growth in Q2 2009 and Q32009, and for real GDP to remain flat in Q4.  After the sharpcontraction in economic activity in 2009, growth will reenter positiveterritory only in 2010, and then at a very sluggish rate, well belowpotential.

Even if economic activity stops contracting by the end of 2009, thatmight not mark the official end of this recession.  Recessions are notmeasured exclusively by GDP contractions.  Unemployment, industrial production, real manufacturing, wholesale retail trade sales and real personal income(less transfer) are all considered when it is time for the NationalBureau of Economic Research (NBER) to put dates around recessionperiods.  As reported by the NBER, this recession started in December2007, and all the above indicators peaked between November 2007 andJune 2008.  U.S. real GDP will stop contracting at the end of 2009, butit is likely that many of the above indicators will not bottom out (orpeak, in the case of unemployment) before mid-2010.

Improvements in real economic activity are present and visible inthe reduction of the pace of job losses, in the improvement inindicators of manufacturing activity, in the stabilization of housing startsand in the improvement of financial conditions.  However, RGE Monitordoes not yet see signs of a strong and sustainable recovery.

详细 请看
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/257243/rge_monitor__us_economic_outlook_q2_2009_update

thanks a lot

【哈佛笔记六十六】美国经济前景依然令人悲观的理由
http://www.caijing.com.cn/2009-07-14/110197164.html
这篇文章也能 印证 这一观点