Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

Authors: Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Arno Tausch



Provides a large-scale panorama of economic changes since the second half of the 18th century

Explains the development of relations between the economic center and the periphery

Offers forecasts of social, technological, and economic development, including implications of global aging

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations.

Among the topics in this ambitious volume:

• Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis.
• Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape.   
• How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.<
• The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South.               
• Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage.

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers,  global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.      

Table of contents

Front Matter
Pages i-xviii

Introduction. Cyclical and World-Systemic Aspects of Economic Reality with Respect to Contemporary Crisis
Pages 1-21

Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective
Pages 23-54

Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles
Pages 55-109

From Kondratieff Cycles to Akamatsu Waves? A New Center-Periphery Perspective on Long Cycles
Pages 111-141

Kondratieff Waves and Technological Revolutions
Pages 143-160

Afterword: New Kondratieff Wave and Forthcoming Global Social Transformation
Pages 161-180

Back Matter
Pages 181-265

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