Table of Contents
Investment summary ........................................................................ 3
Sector in transition: VimpelCom remains top pick, despite Alfa/Telenor risk ............................3
Revising estimates....................................................................................................................6
Strategic issues ................................................................................. 7
Growth or value?.......................................................................................................................7
Changing landscape................................................................................................................10
Valuation update ............................................................................. 12
Spreads compressed, we reduce our RFR to mid-cycle.........................................................12
VimpelCom: remains our top pick – Buy; raising target price to USD15 .................................12
MTS: a good balance of growth and value; Buy; raising target price to USD46.75 ................15
Comstar: unlikely to outperform – Hold; raising target price to USD4.55 ...............................16
Sistema: reshuffling assets – Hold; raising target price to USD12.90.....................................18
Rostelecom: decisions approved, hard work begins – upgrade to Hold and raise target price
to USD7.05 .............................................................................................................................20
Relative valuation ....................................................................................................................24
Models update................................................................................. 25
MTS .......................................................................................................................................25
VimpelCom .............................................................................................................................26
Comstar .................................................................................................................................27
Sistema ..................................................................................................................................27
Rostelecom............................................................................................................................28
Appendix A – Company financials.................................................. 29