Global Shocks
An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets

Authors: Nicholas P. Sargen



The book broadens investors’ skills in analyzing financial markets and providing a blueprint for investing when markets are in turmoil

It also provides context and lessons for those who have limited experience with bear markets to enable them to cope with future ones

It encapsulates key developments that shaped the international financial system for readers who are interested in how the current system evolved

This book, which is written from a practitioner’s perspective, fills the void by providing the reader with a toolkit and guiding principles to manage money when markets are in turmoil. It features ten case studies beginning with the breakdown of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system through the current situation in which investors are assessing whether China could become the next bubble. Each chapter discusses how the respective crisis or bubble unfolded at the time, the way policymakers and markets responded, and the optimal strategy for positioning portfolios.

The goal is to share these experiences and the lessons from them, so investors will be better prepared for future shocks. The opening chapter explores whether there are common patterns in movements of interest rates and exchange rates that investors can exploit.  A conceptual framework is presented that helps explain why this is the case for traditional currency crises, but less so for asset bubbles.  

The concluding chapter ties the episodes together and considers how the nature of financial crises has evolved since the collapse of Bretton Woods. We cite factors that make it difficult for policymakers and investors to detect problems in advance of an asset bubble. The good news is investors get a second chance to outperform when markets are over-sold; however, they need to formulate a strategy to limit the damage during the sell-off phase and to capitalize on the eventual recovery.  

Table of contents

Front Matter

Overview: A Framework for Investing During Currency Crises and Asset Bubbles

Investment Challenges in a High Inflation Era
• Front Matter
• Bretton Woods’ Collapse Alters the World of Investing
• Oil Shocks Generate Massive Payments Imbalances
• Anti-Inflation Policies: Intended and Unintended Consequences
• Policy Coordination Gives Way to Conflict and Turmoil
• Speculators Attack the Concept of European Monetary Union

Easy Credit Breeds Asset Bubbles and Instability
• Front Matter
• Japan’s Bubble Culminates in Two Decades of Deflation
• Asia’s Real Estate Boom Triggers Global Contagion
• The Tech Bubble: Some Lessons for Rational Investors
• The Global Financial Crisis: No Place for Investors to Hide
• China’s Economic Miracle: Will It Become the Next Bubble?
• Guidelines for Investing During Crises

Back Matter

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