Quarterly order flow has the potential to
double on government rail projects
􀀗 Sector has underperformed H-share
rally: Catalysts could reverse this trend
􀀗We are above consensus on 2010e
earnings to factor in scale of new orders
We see several potential near-term catalysts supporting the
sector:
􀀗 Quarterly growth in already strong order book has the
potential to double. By 1Q09, the Ministry of Railways
had used only 12.5% of the RMB600bn 2009 budget. We
believe the balance will be spent this year, as railway
capex is central to China’s RMB4trn stimulus package
􀀗 Falling raw material prices to sustain margins
􀀗 FX losses, a major earnings risk, are being contained
The sector has underperformed the H-share index in the
recent rally as investors have switched into high-beta stocks.
We think this trend will be reversed as catalysts drive
earnings growth and reduce investor concerns on the sector.
Our 2010 earnings estimates for the three companies – CRC,
CRG and CCC – are well above consensus mainly on rapidly
accelerating order flow and, hence, earnings growth. Following
our earlier upgrade of CRC, we raise CRG’s 2009e earnings
10.8% and lift our target price to HKD6.8 from HKD5.6.
The sector trades at 15-19x 2009e PE, but only 7.6-10x
EV/EBITDA. This is slightly above international peers, but
the sector’s earnings CAGRs are 50-300% higher, and this
rising profitability translates into projected ROEs of 9-16%,
in line with global peers.
Investment risks include (1) execution risk on the ballooning
number of projects; (2) negative free cash flow, which could
increase funding needs; and (3) fickle raw material prices,
which could swing margins.