Contents
Takeaways from China Property Corporate Day .......................................................... 3
Talk of a bubble is premature 4
Market is not back to full health yet, but it should be soon 4
But equilibrium is expected by 2Q10 5
Land acquisition: Simmering, not boiling 6
Industry outlook ............................................................................................................. 9
Government to maintain property-supportive policies 9
But some fine-tuning is likely … 10
… leading to a “whip-saw” recovery 10
Sector recommendation............................................................................................... 12
Emerging oligopoly … 13
… and substantial growth justify LT re-rating 13
Company updates ....................................................................................................... 17
Agile Property – Hold; CP: HKD9.37; TP: HKD10.85 18
China Overseas Land – HOLD; CP: HKD15.64; TP: 17.20 23
China Resources Land – BUY; CP: HKD15.28; TP: HKD21.30 28
Country Garden – HOLD; CP: HKD3.38; TP: HKD3.80 33
Financial statements – P&L, Balance sheet and Cash flow ........................................ 38