CONTENTS
Investment case ........................................................................................... 4
Forecasts...................................................................................................... 6
Risks ............................................................................................................ 9
Valuation..................................................................................................... 10
Recommendations...................................................................................... 11
Hotels ......................................................................................................... 14
Investment case...............................................................................................................15
Trading outlook ..............................................................................................................20
Growth likely to return long-term ...............................................................................27
The models described ....................................................................................................31
Companies.....................................................................................................
InterContinental Hotels...........................................................................................34
Whitbread...................................................................................................................42
Tour Operators ...........................................................................................50
Investment Case..............................................................................................................51
Trading outlook ..............................................................................................................54
Restructuring benefits still to come .............................................................................57
Longer-term growth.......................................................................................................61
Companies.....................................................................................................
Thomas Cook............................................................................................................71
TUI Travel..................................................................................................................79
Pubs & restaurants .....................................................................................89
Investment case...............................................................................................................90
Trading outlook ..............................................................................................................96
Companies.....................................................................................................
Enterprise Inns........................................................................................................111
Fuller Smith & Turner ...........................................................................................119
Greene King ............................................................................................................126
Luminar ....................................................................................................................134
Marstons...................................................................................................................142
Mitchells & Butlers .................................................................................................150
Punch Taverns.........................................................................................................158
The Restaurant Group ...........................................................................................167
JD Wetherspoon .....................................................................................................175