【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月台湾电子阅读行业研究报告
        【作者】：元大京华
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：45
        【目录或简介】：
E-reader/iPad Display Industry
E-readers facing rising pressure
Summary: Although E-readers offer different form factors from
iPad/tablet devices, we expect their single functionality and lack of
quality color display solutions will result in them facing significant pricing
pressure from iPads priced as low as US$499. In order to drive demand,
we project 9” Monochrome e-readers should be priced below US$199 in
the U.S, and US$99 in China, which implies margin pressure in the supply
chain. While we see global shipments of 10 mn e-readers in 2010 (from 4
mn in 2009) as achievable, we see industry downside risks in 2011-12F
unless there are significant technological breakthroughs in e-readers
which lowers ASPs and offers a better color solution.
iPad on deeper cost curve than e-reader: EPD (Electrophoretic display)
accounts for 25-30% of e-reader’s BOM (bill of materials) cost, with
prices being controlled by E ink. Touch panels (projective capacitive type)
also account for 25% of iPad’s BOM, but we expect a 25-30% YoY price
drop will result in the iPad enjoying a deeper cost-curve than E ink’s EPD
from 2011. E-readers face serious questions – either offer a deep price
cut at the expense of margins, or stay in its niche sector with less growth
potential beyond 2010. Although we expect to see enriched e-reader
devices, with such technologies as flexible substrates and touch panels,
the mainstream 9” monochrome e-reader may offer less novelty in 2010,
beyond Kindle’s DX, while mass production of color e-readers is still in
its infancy.
E ink’s dominant share faces intensifying competition from 2H11: E ink’s
monochrome EPD under microcapsule structure faces obstacles when
transitioning to a color display, and we believe that the interim solution
of adding a color filter is inferior to the competing TFT-LCD technology.
While E ink should retain the lion’s share of the e-reader market in 2010
(80-90%), low-cost suppliers like Sipix and emerging technologies like
Mirasol (which may be scalable for mid-size displays after yield
improvements) will be strong contenders from mid-2011. We also
consider AMOLED, which will replace TFT-LCD for handsets, a long-term
threat to pure e-reader devices, likely from 2012-13, once LGD and
Samsung begin Gen 4 mass production (and above) fabs.
PVI (8069 TT) – Initiate with a HOLD recommendation, TP of NT$66: We
are more cautious on PVI’s growth outlook for 2011 than the market and
our 2011F EPS forecast is 15% below the consensus. We believe that its
high-margin profile in 2010 will not carry on into 2011 owing to ASP
deterioration and intensifying competition. In our view, any potential
share price rebound (due to seasonality from 2Q10) is unlikely to be
sustainable, and the market will continue to view the departure of E ink’s
CEO (in Feb 2010) as a drawback.

Table of contents
Investment summary............................................................................................. 5
Market overview.................................................................................................... 7
E-reader display technology................................................................................ 12
E-reader supply chain ......................................................................................... 18
E-reader/iPad cost analysis ................................................................................. 22
AMOLED – the next big wave ............................................................................... 24
Initiation: Prime View (8069 TT); HOLD .........................................26
Investment thesis................................................................................................ 27
Valuation ............................................................................................................ 29
EPD – PVI’s earnings driver .................................................................................. 32
Earnings outlook................................................................................................. 35
Company overview.............................................................................................. 39
Appendix I – overview of subsidiaries .................................................................. 41