Table of Contents
Positioning for a recovery ............................................ 3
Oversupply pressures gradually easing ....................... 14
Regional outlook....................................................... 17
Why & how will the government be supportive............. 24
Solvency and financial stability.................................. 27
How (un)affordable is housing in China?...................... 34
Land market ............................................................. 38
Earnings outlook....................................................... 40
Investment considerations......................................... 41
Valuation methodology.............................................. 42
Commercial properties and hotels .............................. 45
China Overseas (0688 HK); BUY.............59
Investment Thesis..................................................................60
Valuation..............................................................................67
Earnings outlook....................................................................76
Shimao Property (0813 HK); BUY ...........86
Investment thesis ..................................................................87
Valuation..............................................................................95
Earnings analysis and financial outlook ................................... 103