We believe UK water companies will
provide a safe haven in any market derating
in H2, assuming a favourable
outcome of the interim price
determination on 23 July
􀀗 Credit view – we favour highly
structured names
􀀗 Equity picks – Pennon, OW, TP550p;
UU, OW, TP 660p
Ultra defensive?
We believe investors are still looking for ultra-defensive plays
to counteract any potential market instability in H2 2009. We
believe UK water maintains its defensive status, even though
the regulatory agency Ofwat will announce the preliminary
view of its five-year review of prices on 23 July. In our view,
the sector offers high visibility of investment for the next five
years; freedom from political interference in regulation, a
clearly defined regulated asset base that allows the sector to
access long-dated debt and market expectation that the UK may
see some inflationary pressure rather than sustained deflation.
Interim prices
We assume a 4.78% cost of capital will be set by Ofwat, but we
are concerned that Ofwat may use the unusually low level of
benchmark 10–year indexed linked gilts to set too low a risk
free rate. We also think Ofwat must err on the side of caution,
given the prescriptive covenants set by rating agencies. We set
out company expectations and identify risks in the review.
Credit view
Within regulated UK water and sewerage, we favour bonds
issued out of whole business securitisations, given the structural
covenant protections provided to bondholders in such
structures. We favour Thames Water (in euro and sterling),
Anglian Water (in CDS, euro and sterling) and Northumbrian
Water (in sterling). We least favour Severn Trent (in euros and
sterling) and United Utilities (in euros and sterling).
Equity view
Northumbrian Water, Neutral, TP raised to 270p from 250p;
Pennon, Overweight, TP 550p; United Utilities, Overweight,
TP 660p; Severn Trent, Underweight, TP1090p.