【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球水务行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：120
        【目录或简介】：
Investment summary 1
Climate change – country
analysis 7
Asia –water for the growth engine 14
Europe – selected markets of
opportunity 22
Middle East – the apogee of
water scarcity 31
US environmental drivers and
water scarcity 36
Water company winners 41
Company sections 45
Aqua America (WTR US) 47
American Water Works (AWK US) 53
Athens Water and Sewerage (EYDAP GA) 60
Pennon (PNN LN) 66
Northumbrian Water Group (NWG LN) 73
United Utilities (UU/ LN) 79
Severn Trent (SVT LN) 86
Suez Environnement (SEV FP) 92
Veolia Environnement (VIE FP) 99
Seche Environnement (Saur) (SCHP FP) 106
Appendix 1 SRES Scenarios 111
Disclosure appendix 113
Disclaimer 116

Global Water: Investment summary
In this report, we combine an analysis of the water companies we cover with our climate change research,
building on the December 2009 report Too Close for Comfort. We identify areas of the world which will
face a crisis of supply in the future, and explore how the companies will be able to respond to mitigate
water shortages and expand their businesses. We identify key areas of water stress globally, examining
Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the US, to identify countries offering particular opportunities.
We then explore the framework for investment in those markets, in particular whether there is a stable
legal and financial framework for investment and whether tariffs reflect actual costs, both for existing
operations and to fund environmental improvements and asset replacement.
Putting these together gives us a matrix of the markets most likely to provide growth in profitable
opportunities.
We then analyse the water companies we cover – their markets of operation, the opportunities for growth
and their financial capacity to grow.
We divide them into two groups:
􀀗 The three French water and waste companies, Seche Environnement, Suez Environnement and Veolia
Environnement, which have international operations and are more geared to international water
scarcity and to global economic recovery, and Severn Trent Services, which despite its relatively
small size (cGBP30m of operating profit in 2010e), has operations in Australia, China, MENA,
Southern Europe and the US.
􀀗 Domestically focused companies, which include the UK water companies (except for Severn Trent),
American Water Works, Aqua America; Athens Water and Seche (Saur). Aqua America and
American Water Works have considerable scope to grow in the US, in our view, because it is a key
market for consolidation.
We conclude that the global water market provides opportunity for growth subject to the following
constraints:
􀀗 Government and municipal budgetary constraints are restricting opportunities. Many projects have
been on hold awaiting stimulus money or project finance.
􀀗 Waste water and water reuse are still too low a priority in many parts of the world. Our analysis of
significant opportunities excludes many parts of the world that have acute water scarcity.
􀀗 All the companies we cover are also constrained by their balance sheets, except Aqua America, in our
view. This limits their growth opportunities.
􀀗 For the next six months, prospects for growth remain limited. In H2 2010, deleveraged balance sheets,
regulatory support and availability of debt capital, including project finance, will allow growth, in our
view.
French water companies
Veolia (TP EUR29, previously EUR27; Overweight, previously Neutral (V)) has the largest product
and geographical reach. It looks to be the best-placed to respond to economic recovery and water scarcity,
in our view. Its technical competence should make it competitive in areas where high environmental
compliance is required – Australia, Europe, and the Middle East in particular. Its high-tech offering also
makes it competitive in areas like China, where technology transfer is required because local incumbents,
although competitive on price, cannot provide the technological sophistication municipalities require.
Veolia’s major challenge in 2010 is to manage its business, driving up margins through cost cutting and
channelling its relatively limited financial resources towards growth in earnings and returns. We think
now that management changes are complete, the company can return to growth. We remove our volatility
indicator and upgrade Veolia to Overweight from Neutral.
Suez Environnement (TP EUR22, previously EUR19; Overweight, previously Neutral) has
established its separate identity 21 months after demerging from GDF-Suez, and has enhanced the
strategic direction of the company through key management appointments. We believe its water and
waste focus is attractive to the market and is less likely to suffer from the perceived conglomerate
discount of Veolia. Its decision to buy out the minorities of Agbar gives it access to growth in Spain and
Latin America and makes it a more strategically coherent group. This action has left it capitalconstrained,
however. We believe it has a key opportunity to expand United Water in the US through
tuck-ins, but these by their nature will be capital-intensive. We would like to see SEVI driving further
success in the desalination market following its major project wins in Australia, Spain and the Gulf. This
could give it more contract wins in Spain, the Middle East and China.
Of the two, despite its conglomerate status which we reflect in a discount to SOP and DCF, Veolia has the
largest exposure to water (2010e revenues of EUR13.1bn) and also has the least capital intensive business
(as well as lower margins) compared with its peers.
Seche Environnement (TP EUR63, previously EUR67; Neutral (V)) represents an exciting prospect
for the future, in our view: a fully integrated water and waste-management group with the scope to
compete effectively against SEVI and VIE in France in waste management and a well-established
international water operator with a niche in Africa, in particular. We believe Seche’s performance is still
being held back by its financial structure.
The UK water companies continue to grow – Ofwat stated at the the final price
determination in November 2009 that it will allow GBP21bn will be invested by English and Welsh water
companies in the next five years. We expect regulatory assets to grow modestly for two of the companies
Pennon and Severn Trent as there is more replacement capex taking place. This growth underpins
relatively stable debt and credit ratings and a chance to grow dividends in real terms, in our view.
United Utilities (TP 640p, previously 600p; Overweight) will increase its regulatory asset base (RAB)
by 12% in real terms to 2015e as Ofwat assumes. This is the largest growth in investment in the sector.
Nevertheless, with aggressive cost cutting, UU intends to keep its debt stable around the 60% debt/RCV
(regulatory capital value) level, on our estimates. We calculate that it offers inflation +2% growth to
2015e from a rebased dividend of 30p (for 2010e-11e), yielding 5.4%. UU has considerable scope to
outperform financially against Ofwat’s assumption of 3.6% real cost of debt, having raised some GBP2bn
of index-linked debt at rates of around 1.8%. Its non-regulated businesses are up for sale. If these are sold,
UU will exit its international water concessions. It has recently won an operating contract in a joint
venture with Acciona in Australia and a UK waste PFI. The CEO has repeatedly said he would be open to
any opportunity to create additional shareholder value by considering offers for the whole group. UU has
an EV of cGBP9bn, which makes M&A activity less likely in our view, except for a consortium with
considerable financial capacity. We believe UU’s initiatives on reducing headcount by 5% to10% in its
regulated business will drive opex outperformance. It can also, with a relatively low CIS score, deliver
capex outperformance, in our view.
Severn Trent (TP 1,200p, previously 1,130p; Underweight, previously Neutral) will increase its RAB
by 4% in real terms to 2015e according to Ofwat estimates. Its debt will remain stable around the 65%
debt/RCV level on our estimates. We calculate that it offers inflation and unspecified real growth to 2015e
from a rebased dividend of 62p (for 2010e-11e) yielding 5.2%. We expect SVT to confirm the exact level of
real dividend growth above RPI it expects to offer by November 2010. SVT also has scope to outperform
financially against Ofwat’s assumption of 3.6% real cost of debt, in our view. The Severn Trent Services