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2009-08-05
中国的国内生产总值(GDP)是世界上最受关注的数据之一,因为它们足以改变市场走势,或是提振复苏将至的希望。
然而,中国各省公布的上半年最新数据之和,远远超出了中央政府发布的全国数据,令人对中国统计数据的准确性产生新的疑问。
根据中国31个省市自治区各自发布的数据,上半年GDP总和达15.376万亿人民币(合2.251万亿美元),比国家统计局(NBS)公布的上半年官方GDP数据——13.986万亿人民币——高出10%。
除了7个省市自治区,其余地区上半年的GDP增幅均超过了国家统计局发布7.1%。今年初,北京设定今年中国经济的增长目标为8%。世界其它国家一直将中国视为经济增长的灯塔,然而这种数据差异提醒人们,中国的统计数据往往不可靠,官员们出于个人和政治原因,经常操纵数据。
近几年,中国各省提供数据一直显示,这个世界第三大经济体的规模,要大于北京发布的估算,但今年的差距似乎有所扩大。
甚至连官方媒体也在近几日发表报道和社论,对统计数据的准确性提出疑问。
中共机关报《人民日报》旗下的《环球时报》(Global Times)报道称,国家统计局公布上半年中国城镇在岗职工平均工资增长13%,达2142美元,而公众对此的反应是取笑与讥讽。
该报援引一项在线调查称,88%的受调查者对官方数字表示怀疑。
官方英文报纸《中国日报》(China Daily)的社论引用了另外一项调查,显示91%的受调查者对官方数据持怀疑态度,高于2007年时79%的比例。
海外经济学家也对近几个月数据的可靠性提出质疑。
“尽管资源极其有限,且经济多变而复杂,但国家统计局还是仅需15天就能调查出13亿人的经济动态,”华盛顿美国传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)研究员史剑道(Derek Scissors)指出。他指的是国家统计局在上半年结束后编制统计数据所需的时间。“最糟糕的可能是,统计结果是为了迎合共产党而编造出来的。”
一些经济学家表示,省级官员为改善自己的仕途而夸大地方经济增长的动机十分巨大。
中国官方经济学家表示,国家统计局自身对地方政府上报的数据也经常持谨慎态度,往往会利用自己的统计模型对初步估算做下行修正。
记者打给统计局的电话没有得到答复。该机构和中国多数政府机构一样,很少对置评请求做出回应。
这些批评的声音,促使国家统计局于上周开展了一项名为“统计抒怀:我们一起走过——庆祝新中国成立60周年”的征文活动,以增强统计员们的信心。
征文活动已经收到了散文诗《我骄傲,我是共和国统计大厦的一块砖》之类的作品。在另一首诗歌中,作者写道:“因为有了统计,我可以把天上的星星重新梳理,”此言带有一种并非本意的讽刺意味。
来源:FT中文网
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2009-8-5 16:24:21
统计局数据的真实性大家都是心照不宣的,但是这些官员们能不能细心一些,别把数据弄得太假。
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2009-8-5 16:26:06
英文原文:
China's gross domestic product figures are among the world's most closely watched since they can move markets or boost hopes of an imminent recovery.

But the latest set of first-half numbers provided by provincial-level authorities are far higher than the central government's national figure, raising fresh questions about the accuracy of statistics in the world's most populous nation.

GDP totalled Rmb15,376bn ($2,251bn) in the first half, according to data released individually by China's 31 provinces and municipalities, 10 per cent higher than the official first-half GDP figure of Rmb13,986bn published by the National Bureau of Statistics.

All but seven of the regions reported GDP growth rates above the bureau's first-half figure of 7.1 per cent. At the start of the year, Beijing set 8 per cent as China's growth target for the year.

With the rest of the world looking to China as a beacon of expansion, the discrepancy is a reminder that statistics there are often unreliable and manipulated regularly by officials for personal and political purposes.

In recent years, provincial figures have suggested consistently the world's third-largest economy is bigger than Beijing's published estimate, but the discrepancy appears to have widened this year.

Even state-controlled media reports and editorials have in recent days raised questions over their accuracy.

The Global Times, controlled by the People's Daily, the Communist party mouthpiece, reported the public reacted with “banter and sarcasm” to NBS figures showing average urban wages in China rose 13 per cent in the first half to $2,142.

It quoted an online poll showing 88 per cent of respondents doubted the official numbers.

An editorial yesterday in the China Daily, the government's English-language mouthpiece, quoted another survey that found 91 per cent of respondents were sceptical of official data, up from 79 per cent in 2007.

Economists abroad have also questioned the reliability of the data in recent months.

“Despite starkly limited resources and a dynamic, complex economy, the state statistical bureau again needed only 15 days to survey the economic progress of 1.3bn people,” said Derek Scissors of the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, referring to the time it took for the bureau to produce the figures after the end of the first half this year. “At worst, results are manufactured to suit the Communist party.”

Some economists say provincial officials have enormous incentives to improve their career prospects by exaggerating local economic growth.

The NBS itself is often wary of data provided by local governments and tends to revise down preliminary estimates using its own statistical model, according to official economists.

Calls to the NBS, which like most Chinese government agencies rarely respond to requests for comment, were not returned.

The criticism has prompted the NBS to launch a campaign last week, entitled “Statistical Feelings: We have walked together – Celebrating the 60th anniversary of the founding of New China,” to boost confidence among statisticians.

The campaign has already produced works such as the poetic composition: “I'm proud to be a brick in the statistical building of the republic.” In another poem, a contributor writes, with unintended irony: “I can rearrange the stars in the sky because I have statistics.”
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