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2009-08-06
8月4日美国福克斯Foxnews.com专栏作家——Dan Gainor发表该篇文章,对过去几年中美国媒体对
经济走势的预测进行了简短的批判性回顾。文章中同时对近期受记者访谈的格林斯潘巴菲特针对
经济走势的观点进行了简评。

希望本篇文章的转摘会对美国经济感兴趣的朋友能有所帮助。

原文如下:

Dan Gainor  
- FOXNews.com
- August 04, 2009

Don't Be Fooled by Media 'Experts' on the Economy

We've already lost 3.4 million jobs but journalists keep reporting the economy is better than

consumers think it is. Huh?


What goes up must come down. Unless it goes down further, sideways or moves

some other way that no one really predicted.

That's the way economics really works and no matter how many talking heads -- right, left and center

-- tell you otherwise, most don't have a clue what direction things are headed.

From gas prices to the stock market to jobs, the people who act like they know everything often know nothing.

Sure, many economists -- Greenspan, Geithner, Krugman, Zandi -- are brilliant.

Then there are the media types like Williams and Couric and before her Rather.

None of them could find prosperity even if it were just around the corner.

Here are the facts. Most of those so-called experts have been wrong about the major

economic moves of the past several years. The left treated the robust economy of

the George Bush years like it was a Michael Vick puppy mill .

I bet Obama would trade in every czar he owns for a number even approaching

the unemployment rates found under Bush.

Two million new jobs were created in 2005, and the average unemployment rate

was 5.1 percent. That didn't stop the press from trying to make it look bad. More than

half the stories about jobs on the evening news shows were about losses and layoffs.

CBS even opened the new year pessimistically. "With big business struggling,

unsteady interest rates and signs of a recession, the best some forecasters are

hoping for in 2006 is an average year," said reporter Sharyn Alfonsi on Jan. 1, 2006.

Bush got abused almost daily when unemployment was almost half what it is now.

Joblessness never went about 6.3 percent in all eight years -- even including one recession.

Contrast that with 2009. We've already lost 3.4 million jobs and the year is barely half over.

But Dow Jones tells us that journalists keep reporting that the economy is better than

consumers think it is. The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator, which analyzes

media coverage of the economy, "continued its longest improvement trend in more than four years."

So consumer confidence continues to drop because we're dropping jobs faster than

Obama makes promises. And the media are reporting that things are better than they

seem to the public. Dow Jones shows what any news consumer knows already -- media

economic coverage has been getting more and more positive throughout the Obama

presidency. The index has gone up each of the last five months.

That, despite the endless reminders from liberals that things will continue to get worse

economically. In his weekly radio address on Aug. 2, Obama said the new numbers

out this week are "likely to show that we are continuing to lose far too many jobs in

this country." Only last month, Vice President Biden underscored that "we misread

how bad the economy was."


(未完待续)

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全部回复
2009-8-6 23:18:26
(接前页)

So much so, in fact, that his economic team said the stimulus vote would keep

unemployment no higher than 8 percent. Hey folks, it's at 9.5 percent and climbing.

Warren Buffet, the famed "Oracle of Omaha," predicts it will go higher. His own

predictions aren't doing so great lately though. His firm lost billions of dollars and

he has had to lay off 500 people.



Of course, some blame sits squarely on the stock pickers. Business Week's

annual prediction issue in 2008 was off by miles. The magazine interviewed

54 economists and only two predicted a recession. The magazine turned to

top investment professionals for a market view and well-known investor Elaine

Garzarelli predicted the Dow would close 2008 at 16,000 -- almost double

the actual total of 8,776.



So you'll pardon everyone's cynicism when another crystal ball-type, former Fed Chairman

Alan Greenspan, comes out and says "'I'm short-term optimistic, but with many caveats."

He went on to say we should have economic growth -- unless we don't. It was classic

political double-speak. And this from a man widely criticized by both left and right for making

the housing bubble worse by keeping interest rates artificially low.



Finally, allow me to be suspicious when top Obama officials dodge the question

about raising middle class taxes. Sunday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told

George Stephanopoulos on ABC's "This Week"Sunday that "we're going to have

to do what's necessary."



Obama says he's sticking to his tax pledge but who believes him? Tax revenue is

dropping 18 percent this year and the deficit is up to $1.8 trillion (and we're still missing

a couple major Obama spending sprees).



Sure, there is legitimate good news. The stock markets are up and housing may show

signs of life. But with the track record the experts have, they might not know which way up

really is. And even if they do, the left turn Obama is taking is bound have a negative impact.





Dan Gainor is The Boone Pickens Fellow and the Media Research Center's Vice President for Business and Culture. His column appears each week on The FOX Forum and he appears as a panelist Thursdays on Foxnews.com's "Strategy Room."

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2009/08/04/dont-fooled-media-experts-economy/


(全部完)
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2009-8-6 23:22:12
楼主应该注明是美国媒体,中国媒体对美国经济从来都没有乐观过,只有美国自己在那里说他们好的很
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2009-8-6 23:29:16
3# scd19860719

多谢楼上的指点,下次就有数了。

当然了,仁者见仁智者见智。

Anyway thanks a lot and have a good night, man
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