个人认为经济学家更适合练习语感~

很好 收藏先

2# 亚龙湾的海滩

你说的很对啊，把原文给你贴出来：）

The sun also rises

Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition

The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high. Celebrations should bedelayed

Illustration by S. Kambayashi

WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair. In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %. The president pleaded for the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier. Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed. A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected. Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s recession appears to be coming to an end. On July 31st the government reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the second quarter, but at only a 1% annual rate. Much of that decline reflected business’s determination to keep factories and workers idle and fill new orders out of existing inventory. Now, stocks are so depleted that production will soon have to restart.The clutch of data now available for July has strengthened expectations that GDP will rise in the current quarter by as much as 3%. An index of manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since last August, and manufacturers reported that new orders were growing briskly, the best in over two years. Car sales jumped 15% to an annualised 11.2m and manufacturers are ramping up production. Sales of existing houses have risen. Even battered Elkhart got some good news: on August 4th Dometic, a supplier of recreational-vehicle parts, said that with some help from local incentives it would add 240 jobs to its operation in the town.

Mr Obama and his aides have wasted no time in crediting the $787 billion fiscal stimulus for spurring this recovery. In fact the stimulus’s contribution so far has been relatively modest. More important was last autumn’s massive injection of public capital, loans and loan guarantees into the financial system, and this spring’s bank stress tests. These stopped the spiral of declining asset prices, credit withdrawals and bank failures that had threatened to turn a recession into a depression.

One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years. Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit.

Despite the good news, Mr Obama’s approval ratings, though high, are slipping. This, in part, is because the single most important economic benchmark, employment, remains grim, surprisingly so. Unemployment usually responds to economic growth in a relationship that was captured by an economist, Arthur Okun, in the 1960s. But it has risen more during this recession than most formulations of Okun’s Law would suggest.

The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy. The revisions show that GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% since the end of 2007, thus tying with 1957-58 as the deepest recession since the Depression (before these revisions, the decline was shown to be 2.5%). Even so, Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says that Okun’s Law would have predicted an unemployment rate of just 8.6% during the second quarter, whereas it actually averaged 9.3%.

Several factors are at work. Expanded unemployment-insurance benefits encourage some workers to keep looking for a job rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, adding perhaps half a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to the Fed. The evisceration of their wealth may have led people to look for work rather than retire or stay at home with the children.

And firms have been unusually quick to slash payrolls. Some may be husbanding cash more carefully because of the credit crunch. Others may simply be more pessimistic about an eventual recovery. Whatever the reason, one result is that productivity is rising, cushioning profit margins. Robert Hall of Stanford University, who heads the academic committee that dates recessions, says Okun devised his law in an era when productivity usually fell during recessions: “When productivity rises, the law fails. Though I was a great fan of Okun’s, I’m afraid his law is obsolete.”

The difference with Europe is especially striking. In the euro zone GDP has fallen further than in America but unemployment has risen less (see chart). Employers are slower to sack workers than in America, partly thanks to government subsidies that encourage them to shorten working hours instead (see article
). This means that European unemployment will probably be slow to fall once GDP recovers.

But it looks as if it will be slow to come down in America as well. Firms are unlikely to do much hiring until growth seems durable, and so far it does not. Replenishing inventory will be a temporary fillip without an increase in consumer demand. Car sales have been strong in great part because of the federal cash-for-clunkers programme, which allows Americans to get up to $4,500 for their old car when they exchange it for a new one. The programme was supposed to run until November 1st but its $1 billion was snapped up within days of its start on July 24th. The House of Representatives has voted for an extra $2 billion and at mid-week the Senate was expected to do likewise. But cars bought now may mean fewer cars bought later.

If growth peters out again later this year, it will dash the expectations Mr Obama has done so much to raise by touting his stimulus. Dick Moore, Elkhart’s mayor, has been so enthusiastic about federal support that some county officials harrumph that he sleeps in Obama pyjamas. Though the president obligingly promised $39m for a local unit of Navistar to make electric trucks, it will take time for the firm to scale up production and hire workers. Meanwhile, Dorinda Heiden-Guss, who heads the county’s economic-development group, has been barraged with requests from companies seeking incentives. But many of them do so without a semblance of a business plan.

Another caveat: all numbers are subject to revision, perhaps years later. Even the Depression is getting worse. According to the latest revisions, GDP fell 26.7% between 1929 and 1933: the pre-revision figure was a mere 26.6%. Today’s green shoots could still be revised away.

Signs of economic cheer
经济呈祥兆
The sun also rises
太阳照常升起
Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high. Celebrations should be delayed
经济在告别衰退，失业率却畸高如故。庆贺当缓矣。
Illustration byS.Kambayashi    由S.Kambayashi插图

WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair. In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %. The president pleaded for the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier. Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed. A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected.
2月初，即在奥巴马就职典礼后数星期探访印第安纳州的埃尔德哈特县时，时局暗淡。在过去12个月中，该地区的失业率已增至三倍多，达到18.3 ％ 。总统秉持“无所作为不是一种选择”，恳求通过大规模的财政刺激措施。8月5日重访埃尔德哈特，奥巴马脸露阳光，他宣布当地工厂“生机正现”。几天前，他就已断言，经济状况比预期的“适度更好”。
Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s recession appears to be coming to an end. On July 31st the government reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the second quarter, but at only a 1% annual rate. Much of that decline reflected business’s determination to keep factories and workers idle and fill new orders out of existing inventory. Now, stocks are so depleted that production will soon have to restart.
奥巴马的好神情源于好基础：美国的经济衰退似乎行将结束。7月31日的政府报告说，今年第二季度实际国内生产总值（ＧＤＰ）以年率计算只萎缩了１％。这种萎缩反映了工商业防止工厂闲置及工人失业的决心，而且，充足的新订单超过现有存货。现在，存货大大减少，生产将很快重新启动。
The clutch of data now available for July has strengthened expectations that GDP will rise in the current quarter by as much as 3%. An index of manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since last August, and manufacturers reported that new orders were growing briskly, the best in over two years. Car sales jumped 15% to an annualised 11.2m and manufacturers are ramping up production. Sales of existing houses have risen. Even battered Elkhart got some good news: on August 4th Dometic, a supplier of recreational-vehicle parts, said that with some help from local incentives it would add 240 jobs to its operation in the town.
目前掌握的7月份数据强化了本季度ＧＤＰ将增长3%的预期。制造业活力指数上升至去年8月以来的最高水平，制造商报告说，新订单增长迅速，是两年多来最好的。汽车销售额增长15 ％，达到112万辆，制造商们正在提高产量。现房销售上升。即使支离破碎的埃尔德哈特县也传出好消息：8月4日，游艺车零件供应商Dometic说，得益于地方经济刺激措施，其在小镇上的经营将增加240个就业机会。
Mr Obama and his aides have wasted no time in crediting the $787 billion fiscal stimulus for spurring this recovery. In fact the stimulus’s contribution so far has been relatively modest. More important was last autumn’s massive injection of public capital, loans and loan guarantees into the financial system, and this spring’s bank stress tests. These stopped the spiral of declining asset prices, credit withdrawals and bank failures that had threatened to turn a recession into a depression
为刺激复苏，奥巴马和他的助手们不失时机地注入7870亿美元财政刺激资金。迄今为止，刺激的成效事实上相对适度。更重要的是去年秋天的国有资金的大规模注入，向金融体系贷款并提供贷款担保，今年春通过银行压力测试。这些措施使资产价格恶性循环停止，也使信贷提款和似将发生的衰退演变成大萧条的银行倒闭停止。
One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years. Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit.
最令人鼓舞的信息点是，4、5月之间，20个城市的标普席勒房价指数仅下跌0.2 ％ ，这是两年中最小的下跌。稳定的房价将在减少贷款违约率、提振银行的资产平衡和恢复信贷流动上创造奇迹

Several factors are at work. Expanded unemployment-insurance benefits encourage some workers to keep looking for a job rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, adding perhaps half a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to the Fed. The evisceration of their wealth may have led people to look for work rather than retire or stay at home with the children.
这有几个因素在起作用：根据美联储的观点，扩大失业保险有利于助长一些人与其继续找工作，倒不如从劳动力大军中彻底退出，这或许增加了半个百分点的失业率；财产的缩水也可能使寻找工作的人们宁愿退职或与孩子们一起呆在家里。


这一段是你呢还是我对？意思完全是反的。