英文文献：Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in the Mortality of Danish Males Using a New Affluence Index-使用一种新的富裕指数对丹麦男性死亡率的社会经济差异进行建模
英文文献作者：Andrew J.G. Cairns,Malene Kallestrup-Lamb,Carsten P.T. Rosenskjold,David Blake,Kevin Dowd
英文文献摘要：
We investigate and model how the mortality of Danish males aged 55-94 has changed over the period 1985-2012. We divide the population into ten socio-economic subgroups using a new measure of affluence that combines wealth and income reported on the Statistics Denmark national register database. The affluence index, in combination with sub-group lockdown at age 67, is shown to provide consistent sub-group rankings based on crude death rates across all ages and over all years in a way that improves significantly on previous studies that have focused on life expectancy. The gap between the most and least affluent is confirmed to be widest at younger ages and has widened over time. We introduce a new multi-population mortality model that fits the historical mortality data very well and generates smoothed death rates that can be used to model a larger number of smaller sub-groups than has been previously possible without losing the essential character of the raw data. The model produces bio-demographically reasonable forecasts of mortality rates that preserve the sub-group rankings at all ages. It also satisfies reasonableness criteria related to the term structure of correlations across ages and over time through consideration of future death and survival rates.

我们调查并模拟了1985-2012年丹麦55-94岁男性死亡率的变化情况。我们使用丹麦统计局国家登记数据库公布的结合财富和收入的新富裕衡量标准，将人口分成十个社会经济群体。富裕指数，再加上67岁时的亚群禁闭，显示出基于所有年龄和所有年份的粗死亡率，提供了一致的亚群排名，这大大改善了之前的研究，主要关注的是预期寿命。最富裕和最不富裕的人之间的差距在年轻的时候最为明显，而且随着时间的推移，差距还在扩大。我们引入了一种新的多人口死亡率模型，该模型非常符合历史死亡率数据，并生成平滑的死亡率，可用于建模比以前可能的更大数量的更小的亚群体，而不丢失原始数据的基本特征。该模型从生物人口统计学角度对死亡率进行合理预测，从而保持各年龄段的亚群排名。它还通过考虑未来的死亡率和存活率，满足与跨年龄和跨时间的相关性期限结构有关的合理性标准。